Analisis Pengaruh Disrupsi Permintaan Terhadap Ketersediaan Produk Retail Apotek Selama Pandemi COVID-19 Menggunakan Bayesian Network

Firdaus, Intan (2021) Analisis Pengaruh Disrupsi Permintaan Terhadap Ketersediaan Produk Retail Apotek Selama Pandemi COVID-19 Menggunakan Bayesian Network. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pertama kali ditemukan di Wuhan, China pada Desember 2020 dan telah ditetapkan sebagai pandemi oleh World Health Organization (WHO). Pandemi COVID-19 menyebabkan berubahnya pola konsumsi masyarakat secara tiba-tiba. Peningkatan permintaan produk kesehatan yang signifikan mendorong timbulnya masalah ketersediaan produk pada retail apotek dan mengganggu ketahanan retail. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan penelitian yang mampu menganalisis dampak disrupsi permintaan terhadap ketersediaan produk retail apotek selama pandemi COVID-19. Bayesian Network dipilih sebagai metode dalam penelitian ini karena kemampuannya untuk mengurutkan resiko secara hirarki dan memvisualisasikan hubungan probabilitas antar variabel secara grafis. Penelitian dimulai dengan pengumpulan data inventory atau stockout dari sembilan retail apotek di wilayah Surabaya. Kemudian, dihitung stockout probability untuk masing-masing produk, menyusun conditional probability, dan dilanjutkan dengan menghitung joint probability tabel menggunakan software Genie. Hasil joint probability tabel menunjukkan tingkat presentase stockout sebagai dampak yang terjadi karena disrupsi permintaan selama pandemi COVID-19. Selanjutnya dilakukan analisis untuk menentukan rekomendasi bagi retail apotek untuk mengatasi dan mencegah dampak disrupsi permintaan terhadap ketersediaan produk selama pandemi COVID-19. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian didapatkan bahwa seluruh kelompok produk yang terdiri dari obat, nutrisi, household, first aid, dan alat kesehatan mengalami peningkatan presentase stockout selama pandemi COVID-19. Produk Vitamin D, antiseptik, masker, Vitamin C, dan Multivitamin merupakan produk yang mengalami disrupsi permintaan paling tinggi akibat pandemi COVID-19 karena memiliki kenaikan presentase stockout tertinggi. Secara keseluruhan, pandemi COVID-19 menyebabkan disrupsi permintaan terhadap ketersediaan produk pada retail apotek di wilayah Surabaya sebesar 41%, meningkat 9% dibanding sebelum pandemi terjadi. Jumlah akumulasi konfirmasi kasus COVID-19 pada setiap bagian wilayah Kota Surabaya berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kejadian stockout yang terjadi pada retail apotek di wilayah tersebut.

Kata Kunci: COVID-19, disrupsi permintaan, ketersediaan produk, retail apotek, Bayesian Network
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The World Health Organization (WHO) pronounced Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) a pandemic when it was first detected in Wuhan, China in December 2020. People's consumption patterns have changed significantly as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic. A large rise in demand for health goods has led to product supply issues at retail pharmacies and disruption of retail resilience. As a result, research on the influence of demand interruption on the supply of pharmacy retail goods during the COVID-19 pandemic is required. Because of its capacity to classify risks hierarchically and graphically show the probability relationships between variables, the Bayesian Network was chosen as the method in this research. The study began with the collection of inventory or stockout data from nine retail pharmacies in the Surabaya area. Afterwards, the stockout probability for each product is computed, the conditional probabilities are compiled, and the joint probability table is generated using the Genie software. The results of the joint probability table show the percentage level of a stockout as an impact that occurs due to demand disruption during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, an analysis was carried out to determine recommendations for retail pharmacies to overcome and prevent the impact of demand disruption on product availability during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, all product categories, including drugs, nutrition, household, first aid, and medical devices, experienced a surge in the percentage of stockouts. Vitamin D products, antiseptics, masks, Vitamin C, and Multivitamins are the products experiencing the highest demand disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic because they have the highest percentage increase in stockout. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a disruption in demand for product availability at retail pharmacies in the Surabaya area by 41%, an increase of 9% compared to before the pandemic occurred. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in each area of Surabaya has an impact on the number of stockout events that occur at local retail pharmacies.

Keyword: COVID-19, demand disruption, product availability, pharmacy retail, Bayesian Network

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	COVID-19, disrupsi permintaan, ketersediaan produk, retail apotek, Bayesian Network COVID-19, demand disruption, product availability, pharmacy retail, Bayesian Network
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > HB801 Consumer behavior. R Medicine > RS Pharmacy and materia medica T Technology > TX Home economics > TX349 Nutrition. Foods and food supply
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Intan Firdaus
Date Deposited:	19 Aug 2021 01:38
Last Modified:	19 Aug 2021 01:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/87832

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