Pemodelan Angka Putus Sekolah Usia SMA di Jawa Barat Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated

Rohmatunnisa', Nur (2023) Pemodelan Angka Putus Sekolah Usia SMA di Jawa Barat Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Dalam mewujudkan pembangunan diperlukan Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM) yang berkualitas, salah satunya dapat diwujudkan pada bidang pendidikan. Tujuan SDGs poin empat mengacu pada menjamin kualitas pendidikan yang inklusif dan merata serta meningkatkan kesempatan belajar seumur hidup untuk semua orang. Tujuan Indonesia untuk mencerdaskan bangsa juga termuat dalam Pembukaan UUD 1945. Program Wajib Belajar 12 Tahun merupakan langkah pemerataan pendidikan dari perwujudan agenda pembangunan RPJMN tahun 2020-2024. Pada tahun 2021 Provinsi Jawa Barat menjadi provinsi dengan persentase angka putus sekolah terbanyak dengan rata-rata 31,32 persen anak putus sekolah di semua jenjang pendidikan. Pada jenjang SMA/Sederajat, persentase angka putus sekolah mencapai 32,17 persen. Mengingat urgensi program Wajib Belajar 12 Tahun, maka menyelesaikan studi hingga jenjang SMA/Sederajat merupakan hal penting yang perlu diperhatikan. Dengan demikian perlu diketahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi angka putus sekolah dengan harapan permasalahan tersebut dapat ditekan. Penelitian ini memodelkan angka putus sekolah menggunakan regresi nonparametrik spline truncated, karena hubungan antara variabel respon yaitu angka putus sekolah dengan keempat variabel prediktor yaitu persentase penduduk miskin, persentase laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, rasio guru terhadap murid, dan rasio sekolah terhadap murid yang diduga mempengaruhi cenderung tidak berpola serta terdapat perubahan pola pada sub-interval tertentu. Hasil penelitian ini menyebutkan bahwa model regresi nonparametrik spline terbaik menggunakan kombinasi titik knot (2,1,2,1) yang menghasilkan koefisien determinasi sebesar 89,4%. Selain itu, diperoleh tiga variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pemodelan angka putus sekolah usia SMA di Jawa Barat tahun 2021 yaitu persentase penduduk miskin, rasio guru terhadap murid, dan rasio sekolah terhadap murid.
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In realizing development, quality human resources (HR) are needed, one of which can be realized in the field of education. SDGs goal point four refers to ensuring the quality of education that is inclusive and equitable and increasing lifelong learning opportunities for all people. Indonesia's goal to educate the nation is also contained in the Preamble of the 1945 Constitution. The 12-Year Compulsory Education Program is an educational equalization step from the realization of the RPJMN development agenda for 2020-2024. In 2021, West Java Province is the province with the highest percentage of dropout rates with an average of 31.32 percent of children dropping out of school at all levels of education. At the high school / equivalent level, the percentage of dropouts reached 32.17 percent. Given the urgency of the 12-year compulsory education program, completing studies up to the senior high school level is an important thing that needs attention. Thus, it is necessary to know the factors that affect the dropout rate in the hope that the problem can be reduced. This study models the dropout rate using spline truncated nonparametric regression, because the relationship between the response variable, namely the dropout rate, and the four predictor variables that are thought to influence it tends to be unpatterned and there is a change in pattern at certain sub-intervals. The results of this study state that the best spline nonparametric regression model uses a combination of knot points (2,1,2,1) which produces a coefficient of determination of 89.4%. In addition, three variables are obtained that have a significant effect on modeling the high school dropout rate in West Java in 2021, namely the percentage of poor people, the ratio of teachers to students, and the ratio of schools to students.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	West Java, Dropout Rates, Knot, Nonparametric Spline Regression, Angka Putus Sekolah, Jawa Barat, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Nur Rohmatunnisa'
Date Deposited:	14 Sep 2023 04:42
Last Modified:	14 Sep 2023 04:42
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/104572

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