Triyasworo, Punto Bagus Pambudi (2024) Analisa Skema Pembiayaan Investasi Pembangunan Tol Serang-Panimbang - Studi Kasus Ruas 1 Tol Serang Panimbang. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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09211950025034__PUNTO BAGUS P.T__MP.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 October 2026. Download (3MB) | Request a copy |
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09211950025034-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 October 2026. Download (3MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Tol Serang-Panimbang, sebagai salah satu Proyek Strategis Nasional (PSN), bertujuan meningkatkan aktivitas ekonomi di Banten dan sekitarnya serta menghemat waktu perjalanan menuju destinasi wisata seperti Tanjung Lesung dan Taman Nasional Ujung Kulon. Investasi ini memiliki risiko, sehingga perlu dilakukan kajian kelayakan finansial dan ekonomi serta analisis dampak risiko. Proyek ini terdiri dari tiga seksi: Seksi 1 (Serang-Rangkasbitung) yang telah beroperasi, serta Seksi 2 (Rangkasbitung-Cileles) dan Seksi 3 (Cileles-Panimbang) yang sedang dalam pelaksanaan. Penelitian ini memproyeksikan finansial dan menganalisis kelayakan investasi Seksi 1, serta skenario investasi untuk mengantisipasi penurunan pendapatan dan perubahan biaya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pendapatan tol tumbuh positif setiap tahun, meskipun biaya total dan pemeliharaan juga meningkat seiring peningkatan Lalulintas Harian Rata-rata (LHR). Dengan masa konsesi 50 tahun, Net Present Value (NPV) pada tahun 2067 sebesar 1.311,72 juta rupiah, menunjukkan investasi layak dilanjutkan. Nilai Index Profitability (IP) adalah 1,294, Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) 1,037, Payback Period (PP) tahun 2060, dan Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 12,86%. Pada penelitian ini, berdasarkan base model, dikembangkan 2 skenario investasi, yaitu skenario divestasi 50% dan 100%. Skenario divestasi 100% pada 2026 menghasilkan tingkat pengembalian lebih tinggi dibanding 50%. Tingkat penurunan pendapatan yang masih dapat ditolerir adalah 23%; penurunan 25% membuat NPV negatif. Penelitian ini diharapkan memberikan masukan bagi pemangku kepentingan dan menjadi referensi dalam meninjau kelayakan proyek investasi jalan tol di masa depan, baik bagi investor swasta maupun pemerintah.
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The Serang-Panimbang Toll Road, as one of the National Strategic Projects (PSN), aims to increase economic activity in Banten and its surroundings and save travel time to tourist destinations such as Tanjung Lesung and Ujung Kulon National Park. This investment carries risks, so it is necessary to conduct a financial and economic feasibility study and risk impact analysis. The project consists of three sections: Section 1 (Serang- Rangkasbitung) which is already in operation, and Section 2 (Rangkasbitung-Cileles) and Section 3 (Cileles-Panimbang) which are under implementation. This study projected the financials and analyzed the investment feasibility of Section 1, as well as the investment strategy to anticipate revenue decline and cost changes. The results show that toll revenues grow positively every year, although total and maintenance costs also increase as LHR increases. With a concession period of 50 years, the NPV in 2067 is 1,311.72 million rupiah, indicating that the investment is worth continuing. The IP value is 1.294, BCR is 1.037, PP is 2060, and IRR is 12.86%. The 100% divestment scenario in 2026 produces a higher rate of return than 50%. The tolerable rate of decline in revenue is 23%; a 25% decline makes the NPV negative. This research is expected to provide input for stakeholders and become a reference in reviewing the feasibility of future toll road investment projects, both for private investors and the government.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | investasi, kelayakan finansial, risiko utama, analisa sensitivitas, stokastik, investment, financial feasibility, main risk, sensitivity analysis, stochastic |
| Subjects: | L Education > L Education (General) |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | Punto Bagus Pambudi Triyasworo |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Aug 2024 06:30 |
| Last Modified: | 11 Sep 2024 02:36 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/113745 |
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