ANALISA PROBABILITAS KERUSAKAN TARGET PADA PERTEMPURAN LAUT BERDASARKAN METODE BAYESIAN NETWORK

Pramudya, Muhammad Azka Bintang (2024) ANALISA PROBABILITAS KERUSAKAN TARGET PADA PERTEMPURAN LAUT BERDASARKAN METODE BAYESIAN NETWORK. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Globalisasi yang semakin berkembang telah secara signifikan mempengaruhi kondisi
geopolitik dunia. Setiap negara memiliki hak prerogatif untuk melindungi dan menjamin
kedaulatan serta integritas wilayahnya dari potensi ancaman militer, yang tercermin melalui
keberadaan sistem pertahanan. Dalam pertempuran laut, probabilitas kerusakan target (kill
probability) dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor seperti jenis senjata, kondisi senjata, kondisi
target, jarak target, jenis amunisi, material target, dan ketebalan material target.
Menggunakan Bayesian network, analisis kill probability dilakukan dengan mencari
probabilitas penetrasi dan tingkat penghancuran peluru, karena peluru sangat mempengaruhi
kehancuran target. Koefisien kill probability ditentukan dengan menghubungkan kejadian
yang mendukung kejadian aktual dalam model dan menginput probabilitas skenario. Hasil
menunjukkan bahwa ukuran bore diameter senjata merupakan faktor yang paling
berpengaruh, dengan senjata yang lebih besar mengurangi kill probability rata-rata sebesar
20% pada kondisi ideal. Faktor utama yang dapat meningkatkan kill probability secara
signifikan adalah posisi atau jarak target dari penembak serta ukuran diameter senjata. Model
ini memberikan gambaran strategi yang dapat diterapkan dalam pertempuran mendatang,
sehingga peluang kehancuran target meningkat dan kapal perang dapat mencapai tujuan
strategisnya
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The increasing globalization has significantly impacted the geopolitical conditions of the
world. Every country has the prerogative to protect and ensure the sovereignty and integrity
of its territory from potential military threats, which is reflected in the presence of defense
systems. In naval combat, the probability of target damage (kill probability) is influenced by
various factors such as the type of weapon, weapon condition, target condition, target
distance, ammunition type, target material, and target material thickness. Using a Bayesian
network, the analysis of kill probability is conducted by determining the probability of
penetration and the degree of bullet destruction, as bullets greatly influence target destruction.
The kill probability coefficient is determined by linking the events supporting the actual
events in the model and inputting scenario probabilities. The results show that the bore
diameter of the weapon is the most influential factor, with larger weapons reducing the kill
probability by an average of 20% under ideal conditions. The main factors that can
significantly increase kill probability are the position or distance of the target from the
shooter and the weapon's bore diameter. This model provides a strategic overview that can
be applied in future battles, increasing the chances of target destruction and enabling
warships to achieve their strategic objectives.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Bayesian network, kill probability, pertempuran laut, persenjataan, naval combat , weaponry
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) U Military Science > U Military Science (General) V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Azka Bintang Pramudya
Date Deposited:	07 Aug 2024 02:12
Last Modified:	07 Aug 2024 02:12
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/114209

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