Probabilistic Scheduling Proyek Pembangunan Penyiapan Lahan Di Papua

Kenfaizarta, Gemilang (2024) Probabilistic Scheduling Proyek Pembangunan Penyiapan Lahan Di Papua. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Proyek konstruksi penuh dengan ketidakpastian dan risiko, seperti ketersediaan material, masalah ketenagakerjaan, dan perubahan peraturan. Metode penjadwalan mengintegrasikan evaluasi penjadwalan PERT dengan pemrograman probabilistik menjadi penting untuk mengelola jadwal dengan mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian. Pemrograman probabilistik pada proyek konstruksi nyata dan analisis dampaknya terhadap manajemen proyek. Dengan mengumpulkan data penjadwalan dan risiko, peneliti dapat mensimulasikan jadwal proyek. Pemrograman probabilistik digunakan untuk mengembangkan model durasi tugas, batasan sumber daya, dan waktu penyelesaian proyek, serta mensimulasikan jadwal proyek untuk menilai kemungkinan pencapaian target dalam berbagai skenario. Penelitian ini diharapkan memberikan wawasan bagi kontraktor dan manajer proyek konstruksi. Dengan menerapkan evaluasi penjadwalan PERT yang didukung pemrograman probabilistik, kontraktor dapat mengurangi risiko jadwal, meningkatkan efisiensi proyek, dan mengoptimalkan pemanfaatan sumber daya. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, analisa risiko proyek dibagi menjadi enam kategori risiko yaitu Policies, Man, Money, Environment, Materials, dan Politics. Dari keenam kategori tersebut, kategori Environmen memiliki nilai risiko yang paling tinggi yaitu 0.63 (Very High). Dari analisa risiko tersebut, durasi rata -rata yang didapatkan 1 hari lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan durasi deterministik aktual proyek. Hasil analisa durasi rata - rata didapatkan pelaksanaan selama 19 hari, sedangkan durasi deterministik aktual proyek didapatkan pelaksanaan selama 20 hari. Sehingga hasil yang diharapkan penelitian ini berkontribusi pada manajemen proyek konstruksi Kesimpulannya, penelitian ini berkontribusi terhadap manajemen proyek konstruksi dengan mengusulkan pendekatan sistematis yang mengintegrasikan evaluasi penjadwalan PERT dengan pemrograman probabilistik. menggunakan teknik ini mendapatkan waktu tambahan satu hari dengan peningkatan keuntungan proyek sebesar 0.72%.
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Construction projects are full of uncertainties and risks, such as material availability, labor issues, and regulatory changes. Scheduling methods that integrate PERT scheduling evaluation with probabilistic programming are essential for managing schedules considering uncertainties. Probabilistic programming on real construction projects and analysis of its impact on project management. By collecting scheduling and risk data, researchers can simulate project schedules. Probabilistic programming is used to develop models of task duration, resource constraints, and project completion time, and simulate project schedules to assess the likelihood of achieving targets in various scenarios. This study is expected to provide insights for contractors and construction project managers. By implementing PERT scheduling evaluation supported by probabilistic programming, contractors can reduce schedule risks, improve project efficiency, and optimize resource utilization. Based on the results of this study, project risk analysis is divided into six risk categories, namely Policies, Man, Money, Environment, Materials, and Politics. Of the six categories, the Environment category has the highest risk value, namely 0.63 (Very High). From this risk analysis, the probabilistic duration obtained is 1 day faster than the project realization duration. From the risk analysis, the average duration obtained is 1 day faster than the actual deterministic duration of the project. The results of the average duration analysis obtained an implementation of 19 days, while the actual deterministic duration of the project obtained an implementation of 20 days. So that the expected results of this study contribute to construction project management. In conclusion, this study contributes to construction project management by proposing a systematic approach that integrates PERT scheduling evaluation with probabilistic programming. using this technique gets an additional day with an increase in project profit of 0.72%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	PERT, Manajemen Risiko, Probabilistic Schedule.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.5 Data Processing T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.8 Productivity. Efficiency
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Gemilang Kenfaizarta
Date Deposited:	12 Aug 2024 06:20
Last Modified:	12 Aug 2024 06:20
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/115328

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