Arifin, Muhammad Syaiful (2024) Analisis Nilai Tambah Perekonomian Melalui Pengembangan Formulasi Harga Gas Bumi Bagi Sektor Industri Pupuk (Studi Penyaluran Gas Bumi PT PGN Tbk Ke Pupuk Kujang Cikampek). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Gas bumi berkontribusi sekitar 90% dari biaya produksi ammonia. Pemerintah Indonesia menempatkan industri pupuk sebagai salah satu sektor industri prioritas dalam penetapan alokasi dan pemanfaatan gas bumi. Pemerintah menetapkan harga gas kepada sektor pupuk melalui Peraturan Presiden Nomor 40 Tahun 2016. Pengaturan harga gas tersebut mengakibatkan keekonomian badan usaha penyedia gas bumi tidak tercapai. Di sisi lain terdapat produk yang dijual dengan mekanisme market price volatile sehingga terdapat peluang bagi industri pupuk untuk mendapatkan gain apabila biaya produksi tidak mengalami perubahan. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menghasilkan analisa nilai tambah bagi perekonomian Indonesia melalui pengembangan formulasi harga gas bumi sesuai keekonomian badan usaha penyedia gas dengan mempertimbangkan kelayakan keekonomian infrastruktur gas bumi (IRR, NPV, Discounted Payback Period) pada produk pupuk yang berorientasi market price seperti ammonia non subsidi. Keekonomian harga jual gas rata – rata tercapai dengan nominal sebesar USD 9,70/MMBTU. Melalui pengembangan formulasi berbasis indeksasi terhadap harga produk ammonia, diperoleh harga gas = 0,60 x (Ammonia / 17,59) dengan batasan bottom price sebesar = 0,60 x [{ Ammonia + ( 285 – Ammonia) } / 17,59] dan ceiling price sebesar = 0,60 x [{ Ammonia - (Ammonia - 427) } / 17,59]. Nilai tambah yang dihasilkan saat harga ammonia di atas USD 427/MT, yaitu bagi PT PGN Tbk meningkatnya indikator keekonomian dengan IRR di atas 32,66% mencapai 806% dengan NPV mencapai USD 4,319,884,818, sedangkan bagi industri pupuk meningkatkan persentase net margin menjadi sebesar 30% pada harga ammonia USD 450/MT dan meningkat hingga di atas 60% saat harga ammonia USD 900/MT.
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Natural gas contributes approximately 90% of the production costs of ammonia. The Indonesian government has designated the fertilizer industry as one of the priority industrial sectors for the allocation and utilization of natural gas. The government sets the gas price for the fertilizer sector through Presidential Regulation Number 40 of 2016. This regulation on gas pricing has resulted in the economic viability of natural gas suppliers not being achieved. On the other hand, some products are sold under a volatile market pricing mechanism, providing an opportunity for the fertilizer industry to gain if production costs remain stable. This research aims to provide an analysis of added value for the Indonesian economy through the development of a natural gas pricing formula that aligns with the economic viability of natural gas suppliers, considering the economic feasibility of natural gas infrastructure (IRR, NPV, Discounted Payback Period) for market-oriented fertilizer products such as non-subsidized ammonia. The economically feasible average gas price is achieved at USD 9,70/MMBTU. By developing an index-based formulation linked to ammonia product prices, the gas price is derived as follows: Gas Price = 0.60 x (Ammonia / 17.59), with a bottom price limit of 0.60 x [{Ammonia + (285 – Ammonia)} / 17.59] and a ceiling price limit of 0.60 x [{Ammonia - (Ammonia - 427)} / 17.59]. The added value is evident when the price of ammonia exceeds USD 427/MT. For PT PGN Tbk, the economic indicators improve significantly, with an IRR rising from 32.66% to 806% and an NPV reaching USD 4,319,884,818. Meanwhile, for the fertilizer industry, the net margin percentage increases to 30% at an ammonia price of USD 450/MT and rises above 60% when the ammonia price reaches USD 900/MT.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Keekonomian harga gas, market price ammonia, pengembangan formulasi harga gas bumi. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC79.E5 Sustainable development. (circular economy) |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | Muhammad Syaiful Arifin |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jan 2025 01:23 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jan 2025 01:23 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/116327 |
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