Pemodelan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue di Provinsi Jawa Barat dengan Geographically Weighted Binomial Regression

Kinanti, Andhini Putri (2025) Pemodelan Kasus Demam Berdarah Dengue di Provinsi Jawa Barat dengan Geographically Weighted Binomial Regression. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Organisasi Kesehatan Dunia (WHO), mengklaim bahwa Indonesia merupakan negara ketiga dengan kasus DBD tertinggi di Asia Tenggara. Menurut Laporan Profil Kesehatan jawa Barat, sejak tahun 2020 hingga 2023 Jawa Barat menempati peringkat pertama jumlah kasus DBD terbanyak di Indonesia. Strategi Nasional Penanggulangan Demam Berdarah Dengue 2021-2025, diperlukan upaya pencegahan dan pengendalian DBD dengan target penurunan angka insiden atau Incidendence Rate (IR) dan angka kematian atau Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Angka kematian (CFR) penderita DBD di Provinsi Jawa Barat tahun 2023 sudah memenuhi target toleransi kematian di Indonesia, yaitu sebesar 0,69% dengan target CFR ≤1%, tetapi angka insiden (IR) di Provinsi Jawa Barat mencapai 38 per 100.000 penduduk, jika dibandingkan target nasional 10 per 100.000 penduduk masih tergolong tinggi dan belum mencapai target. Standar baku indikator lain yang digunakan pengendalian penyakit DBD yaitu Angka Bebas Jentik (ABJ) dengan target program sebesar ≥ 95%, sedangkan realisasinya belum mencapai target yang diharapkan. Kasus DBD yang masih terus menyebar diperlukan upaya pencegahan dan penanggulangan, sehingga dilakukan penelitian terkait variabel prediktor yang diduga memengaruhi jumlah kasus DBD di Jawa Barat menggunakan metode Geographically Weighted Binomial Negative Regression (GWBNR). Metode GWNBR memerhatikan efek spasial, dimana setiap wilayah memiliki kondisi geografis yang berbeda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kasus DBD tertinggi berada di Kabupaten Bogor dan jumlah kasus terendah berada di Kota Banjar. Pemodelan menggunakan metode GWNBR menghasilkan 5 kelompok berdasarkan variabel prediktor yang berpengaruh signifikan yang sama, dimana variabel prediktor yang berpengaruh secara global di seluruh kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Barat adalah variabel jumlah rumah tangga ber-PHBS (X1) dan jumlah rumah sakit umum (X7).
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The World Health Organization (WHO) claims that Indonesia is the third country with the highest dengue fever cases in Southeast Asia. According to the West Java Health Profile Report, from 2020 to 2023, West Java ranked first in the number of dengue fever cases in Indonesia. The National Strategy for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Control 2021-2025 requires efforts to prevent and control DHF with targets to reduce the incidence rate (IR) and case fatality rate (CFR). The CFR of DHF patients in West Java Province in 2023 has met the death tolerance target in Indonesia, which is 0.69% with a target CFR of ≤1%. However, the incidence rate (IR) in West Java Province reached 38 per 100,000 population, which is still considered high compared to the national target of 10 per 100,000 population and has not yet met the target. Another standard indicator used for controlling dengue fever is the Larva-Free Rate (LFR) with a program target of ≥ 95%, while the actual achievement has not yet reached the expected target. The ongoing spread of dengue fever cases necessitates prevention and control efforts, leading to research on predictor variables suspected to influence the number of dengue cases in West Java using the Geographically Weighted Binomial Negative Regression method. (GWBNR). GWNBR method takes into account spatial effects, where each region has different geographical conditions. The results showed that the highest number of dengue fever cases was in Bogor Regency and the lowest number of cases was in Banjar City. Modeling using the GWNBR method produced 5 groups based on the same significant predictor variables, where the predictor variables that had a global influence in all districts/cities in West Java Province were the number of households with PHBS (X1) and the number of hospitals (X7).

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD), Jawa Barat, Dengue Bloody Fever (DBD), GWNBR, West Java
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Andhini Putri Kinanti
Date Deposited:	16 Jan 2025 03:43
Last Modified:	16 Jan 2025 03:43
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/116334

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