Hermawan, Hermawan (2025) Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Berbasis Risiko Subsurface pada Pengembangan Near Existing Production Field (NEPF): Studi Kasus Struktur Alpha dan Beta di PT.PEN. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Penurunan cadangan migas dan tantangan eksplorasi di Indonesia menuntut strategi efisien dan berbasis risiko untuk mendukung ketahanan energi nasional. Pengembangan Near Existing Production Field (NEPF) merupakan strategi investasi yang berpotensi meningkatkan efisiensi dan keekonomian dalam industri migas, dengan memanfaatkan kedekatan lokasi terhadap lapangan produksi eksisting. Strategi ini memungkinkan pengurangan biaya infrastruktur baru serta meminimalkan biaya operasional, meskipun tetap harus mempertimbangkan risiko subsurface yang dapat memengaruhi keekonomian proyek secara keseluruhan. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi kelayakan investasi pengembangan NEPF Alpha dan Beta yang terintegrasi dengan Lapangan Echo, menggunakan metode Net Present Value (NPV) dengan mempertimbangkan risiko subsurface dan potensi produksi melalui skenario success dan dry-hole guna memperoleh gambaran keekonomian proyek yang terukur. Selanjutnya, pendekatan probabilistik Expected Monetary Value (EMV) dan Decision Tree Analysis dilakukan pada Struktur high-risk NEPF Beta untuk mengukur dampak risiko subsurface terhadap prospek investasi, Analisis ini memperhitungkan probabilitas keberhasilan geologi (Pg), estimasi sumberdaya dan variasi forecast produksi (low, best, high case), serta skenario biaya pengembangan (CAPEX dan OPEX). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan nilai NPV pesimistis sebesar USD 9 juta yang merepresenatsikan dry-hole scenario dan NPV optimistis sebesar USD 21 juta yang merepresentasikan success scenario, sementara EMV probabilistik untuk struktur NEPF Beta menghasilkan nilai USD 3,2 juta. Hasil penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa pengembangan NEPF Alpha dan Beta yang diintegrasikan dengan Lapangan Echo adalah layak secara ekonomi berdasarkan analisis NPV dan EMV. Pendekatan gabungan deterministik dan probabilistik membuktikan efektivitasnya dalam menilai risiko subsurface, memberikan dasar kuat bagi pengambilan keputusan investasi menuju (FID) secara optimal dan terukur.
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The decline in oil and gas reserves and the increasing challenges of exploration in Indonesia require efficient and risk-based strategies to support national energy security. The development of Near Existing Production Fields (NEPF) offers a promising investment strategy to enhance efficiency and economic viability in the oil and gas industry by leveraging proximity to existing production facilities. This strategy enables the reduction of new infrastructure costs and minimizes operational expenses, while still requiring careful consideration of subsurface risks that could significantly affect the project's economic performance. This study evaluates the investment feasibility of developing NEPF Alpha and Beta, integrated with the Echo Field, using the Net Present Value (NPV) method. The evaluation considers both subsurface risk and production potential through success and dry-hole scenarios to provide a measurable economic outlook. Furthermore, a probabilistic approach using Expected Monetary Value (EMV) and Decision Tree Analysis is applied to the high-risk NEPF Beta structure to assess the impact of subsurface uncertainty on investment prospects. The analysis incorporates Probability of Geological Success (Pg), resource estimation, production forecast variations (low, best, and high case), and development cost scenarios (CAPEX and OPEX). The results show a pessimistic NPV of USD 9 million representing the dry-hole scenario, and an optimistic NPV of USD 21 million representing the success scenario. The probabilistic EMV for NEPF Beta yields USD 3.2 million. These findings confirm that the development of NEPF Alpha and Beta, integrated with Echo Field, is economically feasible. The combined deterministic and probabilistic approaches prove effective in evaluating subsurface risks, providing a solid foundation for investment decisions toward a well-informed and optimal Final Investment Decision (FID).
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Near Existing Production Fields, Net Present Value, Expected Monetary Value, Subsurface Risks, Investmen Decision-Making |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | Hermawan |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Jun 2025 01:27 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Jun 2025 01:27 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/119174 |
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