Peramalan Produksi Beras di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

Raharjo, Rachel Ayuningtyas Putri and Setiawan, Niken Ayu Maulidya (2024) Peramalan Produksi Beras di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. Project Report. [s.n.], [s.l.]. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Kerja Praktik ini dilaksanakan di PT. Sarana Bandar Nasional Surabaya yang bergerak di bidang jasa logistik, khususnya pengiriman bahan pangan pokok ke wilayah Indonesia Timur. Salah satu komoditas utama yang dikirimkan adalah beras. Untuk memastikan kelancaran distribusi dan ketersediaan stok, dilakukan peramalan produksi beras di Jawa Timur sebagai daerah pemasok utama menggunakan metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Data yang digunakan adalah data produksi beras bulanan dari tahun 2018 hingga 2022, diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur. Proses analisis dilakukan melalui tahap identifikasi model, estimasi parameter, diagnostic checking, dan pemilihan model terbaik berdasarkan kriteria Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,0,0)₁₂ merupakan model terbaik dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 7,47%. Model ini kemudian digunakan untuk meramalkan produksi beras tahun 2023, yang hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa Jawa Timur tetap mampu memenuhi kebutuhan konsumsi beras di Pulau Morotai. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi acuan dalam perencanaan distribusi beras dan mendukung efisiensi operasional logistik perusahaan.
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This internship was conducted at PT. Sarana Bandar Nasional Surabaya, which operates in the logistics services sector, specifically the delivery of staple foods to Eastern Indonesia. One of the main commodities shipped is rice. To ensure smooth distribution and stock availability, rice production forecasting in East Java as the main supplier area was conducted using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The data used were monthly rice production data from 2018 to 2022, obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of East Java Province. The analysis process was carried out through the stages of model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and selection of the best model based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criteria. The results of the analysis showed that the ARIMA (0,0,1)(1,0,0)₁₂ model was the best model with a MAPE value of 7.47%. This model was then used to forecast rice production in 2023, which showed that East Java was still able to meet the rice consumption needs on Morotai Island. The results of this study are expected to be a reference in rice distribution planning and support the company's logistics operational efficiency.

Item Type:	Monograph (Project Report)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Forecasting, Rice Production, East Java, ARIMA, Peramalan, Produksi Beras, Jawa Timur
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Rachel Ayuningtyas Putri Raharjo
Date Deposited:	16 Jul 2025 07:22
Last Modified:	16 Jul 2025 07:22
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/119864

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