Baktyadinata, Hikmahwan Naufanda (2025) Analisis Kekuatan Ultimate Berbasis Keandalan Struktur Zawtika Wellhead Platform (ZWP-12) Akibat Beban Seismik Dengan Pengaruh Scouring. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Penelitian ini membahas analisis kekuatan ultimate dan keandalan struktur Zawtika Wellhead Platform (ZWP-12) terhadap beban seismik dengan pengaruh scouring menggunakan pendekatan non-linear pushover dan metode Monte Carlo. Studi ini dilatarbelakangi oleh kondisi seismik aktif di wilayah Gulf of Moattama, Myanmar, serta potensi kehilangan daya dukung fondasi akibat erosi dasar laut. Hasil analisis seismik menunjukkan bahwa scouring meningkatkan periode natural (dari 4,74 s menjadi 4,84 s), menurunkan base shear, serta meningkatkan overturning moment dan unity check (UC) pada joint dan member. PGA ELE sebesar 0,174 g dan PGA ALE sebesar 0,192 g digunakan pada analisis seismik. Analisis keruntuhan memperlihatkan bahwa kapasitas ultimate mengalami penurunan signifikan, yaitu hingga 45,36% pada ALE arah Y, sementara System Redundancy (SR) menurun lebih dari 38%. Kondisi ini mengindikasikan peningkatan risiko keruntuhan progresif, terutama pada level scouring maksimum sebesar 6,71 meter. Analisis keandalan menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan 100000 iterasi per member pada kondisi ALE dengan scouring maksimum menghasilkan probabilitas kegagalan sistem (PoF) yang cukup rendah, yaitu 5,31×10⁻⁵ (arah X) dan 7,15×10⁻⁵ (arah Y), dengan reliability system K > 0,9999. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa meskipun terdapat degradasi kekuatan akibat scouring, struktur ZWP-12 secara statistik masih berada dalam batas aman terhadap beban gempa.
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This research discusses the ultimate strength and structural reliability analysis of the Zawtika Wellhead Platform (ZWP-12) under seismic loading with the influence of scouring, using a non-linear pushover approach and the Monte Carlo method. The study is motivated by the seismically active conditions of the Gulf of Moattama, Myanmar, and the potential reduction of foundation bearing capacity due to seabed erosion. Seismic analysis results show that scouring increases the natural period (from 4.74 s to 4.84 s), decreases base shear, and increases overturning moment and unity check (UC) values on joints and members. PGA values of 0.174 g (ELE) and 0.192 g (ALE) were applied in the seismic analysis. Collapse analysis indicates a significant reduction in ultimate capacity, reaching up to 45.36% under ALE loading in the Y-direction, while the System Redundancy (SR) decreases by more than 38%. This condition indicates a higher risk of progressive collapse, especially at the maximum scouring level of 6.71 meters. The reliability analysis, using Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations per member under ALE conditions with maximum scouring, yields a system Probability of Failure (PoF) of 5.31×10⁻⁵ (X-direction) and 7.15×10⁻⁵ (Y-direction), with a system reliability (K) greater than 0.9999. These results show that despite the degradation in strength caused by scouring, the ZWP-12 platform remains statistically within safe limits under seismic loading.
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