Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim Pada Pengelolaan Sistem Distribusi Tenaga Listrik PT PLN (Persero) UP3 Gorontalo

Heryanto, Heryanto (2025) Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim Pada Pengelolaan Sistem Distribusi Tenaga Listrik PT PLN (Persero) UP3 Gorontalo. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim global telah meningkatkan intensitas kejadian ekstrem seperti curah hujan tinggi, yang mengancam keandalan sistem distribusi tenaga listrik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim terhadap kerentanan longsor pada sistem distribusi 20 kV PT PLN (Persero) UP3 Gorontalo, menentukan potensi kerugian yang ditimbulkan, dan merumuskan strategi adaptasi yang efektif untuk memastikan keandalan pasokan listrik di masa mendatang. Metode penelitian yang digunakan meliputi analisis data spasial untuk menetukan kerentanan longsor pada sistem distribusi di wilayah provinsi Gorontalo yang menghasilkan peta kerentanan longsor mengacu pada dokumen kajian risiko bencana tanah longsor dari BNPB. Data curah hujan diproyeksikan menggunakan data dari Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dengan skenario SSP2-4.5 dan SSP5-8.5 pada tahun 2030 dan 2050. Dampak teknis dan potensi kerugian dihitung berdasarkan Energy Not Supplied (ENS) dan biaya pemeliharaan korektif. Strategi adaptasi ditentukan berdasarkan analisa aspek teknis, aspek lingkungan dan aspek finansial, kemudian hasil kajian didiskusikan melalui wawancara serta pengisian kuesioner oleh pakar dan diolah menggunakan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Hasil proyeksi curah hujan menunjukkan nilai tertinggi pada skenario SSP5-8.5 yaitu 6790,57 mm/tahun di 2030 dan 6455,15 mm/tahun di 2050, namun tren curah hujan maksimum secara keseluruhan cenderung menurun. Kerentanan bahaya tanah longsor secara signifikan meningkat, terutama pada skenario SSP5-8.5 tahun 2050 dengan 4.437 titik aset berisiko tinggi, melonjak dari 1.131 titik di 2030. Berdasarkan hasil kajian dampak, potensi kerugian akibat peningkatan nilai Energy Not Served (ENS) tertinggi (aspek teknis) yaitu pada skenario SSP5-8.5 tahun 2050 sebesar 809.145 kwh, potensi ceceran minyak trafo distribusi tertinggi (aspek lingkungan) yaitu pada skenario SSP5-8.5 tahun 2050 sebanyak 99 titik dengan volume minyak trafo 16.020 liter, dan potensi kerugian biaya total ENS dan biaya pemeliharaan korektif tertinggi (aspek sosial ekonomi) berada pada skenario SSP5-8.5 tahun 2050 sebesar Rp 22.704.982.408 dan kerugian biaya bisnis (Business Cost) yang ditimbulkan sebesar Rp 140,751 miliar/hari padam. Analisis AHP terhadap tujuh alternatif strategi adaptasi menunjukkan penambahan pembangkit terdistribusi berbasis EBT (TPV: 0,179) menjadi prioritas pertama, prioritas kedua yaitu pembuatan sistem peringatan dini bencana longsor (TPV: 0,159) dan prioritas ketiga yaitu penambahan LBS/Recloser (TPV: 0,145).
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Global climate change has increased the intensity of extreme events such as high precipitation, which threatens the reliability of electrical distribution systems. This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on landslide vulnerability within the 20 kV distribution system of PT PLN (Persero) UP3 Gorontalo, determine the potential losses incurred, and formulate effective adaptation strategies to ensure future electricity supply reliability. The research methods employed include spatial data analysis to determine landslide vulnerability in the distribution system across Gorontalo Province, resulting in landslide vulnerability maps referencing landslide risk assessment documents from BNPB. Precipitation data are projected using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under SSP2‑4.5 and SSP5‑8.5 scenarios for the years 2030 and 2050. Technical impacts and potential losses are calculated based on Energy Not Supplied (ENS) and corrective maintenance costs. Adaptation strategies are formulated using technical, environmental, and financial analyses, followed by expert interviews and questionnaire responses, which are processed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The Results indicate that the highest projected precipitation, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reached 6790,57 mm/year in 2030 and 6455,15 mm/year in 2050. However, the overall trend of maximum rainfall tends to decrease. Landslide hazard vulnerability significantly increases, especially under SSP5 8.5 in 2050, with 4.437 high-risk asset points, rising from 1,131 points in 2030. Based on the impact assessment, the highest potential loss due to increased Energy Not Served (ENS) as a technical aspect is projected under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in 2050, reaching 809.145 kWh. The highest potential for distribution transformer oil spills, as an environmental aspect, was projected in the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2050, affecting 99 points with a total transformer oil volume of 16.020 liters. The highest potential total financial loss, encompassing ENS costs and corrective maintenance, as a socio-economic aspect, was found in the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2050, amounting to Rp 22.704.982.408. The associated business cost was Rp 140.751 billion per day of blackout. The AHP analysis of seven alternative adaptation strategies shows that the addition of distributed generation (DG) based on New and Renewable Energy (NRE) (TPV: 0.179) is the first priority. The second priority is the development of a landslide early warning system (EWS) (TPV: 0.159), and the third priority is the addition of LBS/Recloser devices (TPV: 0.145).

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Perubahan iklim, Longsor, Sistem Distribusi 20 kV, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Strategi Adaptasi, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Climate change, Landslide, 20 kV Distribution System, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Adaptation Strategy, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP).
Subjects:	T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK3030 Electric power distribution systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Heryanto .
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2025 01:40
Last Modified:	23 Jul 2025 08:02
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120644

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