Analisis Kebutuhan Energi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) Sektor Transportasi Darat di Provinsi Bali Menggunakan Metode Time Series untuk Proyeksi Energi Masa Depan

Setiawan, Dimas Noviari (2025) Analisis Kebutuhan Energi Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) Sektor Transportasi Darat di Provinsi Bali Menggunakan Metode Time Series untuk Proyeksi Energi Masa Depan. Masters thesis, Insitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pertumbuhan sektor pariwisata yang pesat di Provinsi Bali telah berdampak signifikan terhadap peningkatan konsumsi energi, khususnya bahan bakar minyak (BBM) di sektor transportasi darat. Sebagai destinasi wisata unggulan nasional dan internasional, lonjakan mobilitas masyarakat dan wisatawan mendorong permintaan BBM yang semakin tinggi. Kondisi ini menuntut perencanaan energi yang berbasis data dan responsif terhadap dinamika permintaan, terutama di kawasan dengan aktivitas wisata yang intensif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pola historis serta memproyeksikan kebutuhan BBM jenis Gasoline dan Gasoil di sektor transportasi darat Provinsi Bali menggunakan model ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables), dengan jumlah wisatawan sebagai variabel eksogen utama. Model ini dipilih karena mampu merepresentasikan hubungan dinamis antara kunjungan wisatawan dan konsumsi BBM secara kuantitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ARIMAX(1,1,0) merupakan model terbaik untuk konsumsi Gasoline dengan MAPE sebesar 0,31%, sedangkan ARIMAX(0,1,1) menjadi model optimal untuk Gasoil dengan MAPE sebesar 11,25%. Kedua model memenuhi asumsi statistik seperti white noise residual dan validitas distribusi, serta mampu memetakan pola konsumsi secara akurat. Analisis Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) menunjukkan bahwa jumlah wisatawan pada lag ke-0 berpengaruh signifikan terhadap konsumsi BBM, menandakan keterkaitan langsung antara peningkatan kunjungan wisatawan dan lonjakan permintaan energi. Temuan ini memperkuat urgensi transisi energi di sektor transportasi melalui pengembangan moda transportasi massal berbasis energi bersih, terutama di jalur-jalur wisata yang terintegrasi dengan bandara dan pusat destinasi. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, disarankan agar data pariwisata diintegrasikan ke dalam sistem perencanaan energi berbasis digital, prediktif, dan spasial untuk meningkatkan akurasi alokasi energi. Selain itu, dibutuhkan penetapan zona prioritas di kawasan wisata guna mendorong diversifikasi energi dan pembangunan infrastruktur pendukung yang ramah lingkungan. Hasil kajian ini diharapkan menjadi landasan dalam merumuskan kebijakan energi yang adaptif dan berkelanjutan di Provinsi Bali.
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The rapid growth of the tourism sector in Bali Province has significantly contributed to increasing energy consumption, particularly for fuel oil (BBM) in the land transportation sector. As a leading national and international tourist destination, the rising mobility of both residents and visitors has driven higher fuel demand. This condition calls for data-driven and responsive energy planning to accommodate demand dynamics, especially in tourism-intensive areas. This study aims to analyze historical patterns and forecast the demand for Gasoline and Gasoil in Balis land transportation sector using the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables) model, with the number of tourist arrivals as the primary exogenous variable. The model was selected for its ability to quantitatively capture the dynamic relationship between tourism flows and fuel consumption. The results indicate that ARIMAX(1,1,0) is the best-performing model for Gasoline, yielding a MAPE of 0.31%, while ARIMAX(0,1,1) is optimal for Gasoil with a MAPE of 11.25%. Both models satisfy key statistical assumptions, including residual white noise and distribution validity, and are capable of accurately modeling consumption patterns. Cross-Correlation Function (CCF) analysis reveals that tourist arrivals at lag-0 have a significant effect on fuel consumption, indicating a direct linkage between tourism growth and energy demand. These findings reinforce the urgency of energy transition in the transportation sector, particularly through the development of clean energy-based mass transit systems along tourism corridors integrated with airports and key destinations. Based on these findings, it is recommended that tourism data be integrated into digital, predictive, and spatially-aware energy planning systems to enhance allocation precision. Additionally, the establishment of priority zones in tourism areas is necessary to support energy diversification and the development of environmentally friendly infrastructure. This study is expected to serve as a foundation for formulating adaptive and sustainable energy policies in Bali Province.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM), Deret Waktu, Kebijakan Energi, Proyeksi Energi, Fuel Oil, Time Series, Energy Policy, Energy Projection.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) > H61.4 Forecasting in the social sciences H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Dimas Noviari Setiawan
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2025 02:16
Last Modified:	23 Jul 2025 02:16
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120704

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