Analisis Estimasi Cadangan Hidrokarbon Pada Shaly Sand Reservoir Dengan Pendekatan Metode Monte Carlo Simulation Pada Lapangan “PYN”

Lathif, Alfiyan Syahrul (2025) Analisis Estimasi Cadangan Hidrokarbon Pada Shaly Sand Reservoir Dengan Pendekatan Metode Monte Carlo Simulation Pada Lapangan “PYN”. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Shaly sand reservoir dikenal memiliki variasi karateristik dan heterogenitas tinggi dengan kandungan lempung yang signifikan. Sifat heterogenitas ini membuat ketidakpastian variasi nilai porositas, permeabilitas, dan saturasi fluida, yang cukup berpengaruh dalam estimasi cadangan hidrokarbon. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis estimasi cadangan hidrokarbon pada reservoir shaly sand lapangan “PYN”. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah menggunakan pendekatan metode Monte Carlo Simulation yang memodelkan ketidakpastian nilai (uncertainty value) pada nilai estimasi cadangan dan metode Thomas-Stieber yang mempertimbangkan analisis disrtibusi shale pada integrasi data log sumur dari lima sumur (ASL-A1, ASL-A2, ASL-B1, ASL-C1, ASL-D1). Pada hasil metode Monte Carlo Simulation menunjukkan estimasi STOIIP sebesar P90: 8.295 MMSTB, P50: 35.953 MMSTB, dan P10: 75.127 MMSTB, menunjukkan cadangan yang potensial untuk analisis ekonomi dan pengembangan. Nilai estimasi cadangan akhir tersebut disebabkan karena pengaruh distribusi shale, terutama tipe structural-dispersed yang terlihat signifikan dalam menurunkan porositas efektif dan permeabilitas reservoir. Selain itu, hasil analisis petrofisika menunjukkan ata-rata parameter utama hasil pay summary meliputi net pay 153.4 ft, volume serpih (Vsh) 36.6%, porositas total (PHIT) 17.4%, dan saturasi air (Sw) 64.8%. Sementara itu, analisis seismik dengan atribut RMS (Root Mean Square) mendukung identifikasi zona hidrokarbon yang potensial pada lapangan “PYN”. Hasil penelitian diharapkan tidak hanya meningkatkan akurasi estimasi cadangan, tetapi juga mendukung perencanaan pengembangan lapangan yang lebih efektif, mengurangi risiko estimasi cadangan, dan mengoptimalkan efisiensi operasional di reservoir shaly sand dengan Tingkat heterogenitas yang kompleks.

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Shaly sand reservoirs are known to have a high variety of characteristics and heterogeneity with significant clay content. This heterogeneity creates uncertainty in the variation of porosity, permeability, and fluid saturation values, which is quite influential in the estimation of hydrocarbon reserves. This study aims to evaluate the estimation of hydrocarbon reserves in the shaly sand reservoir of the “PYN” field. The method used in this study is using the Monte Carlo Simulation method approach that models the uncertainty value in the reserve estimation value and the Thomas-Stieber method that considers shale distribution analysis on the integration of well log data from five wells (ASL-A1, ASL-A2, ASL-B1, ASL-C1, ASL-D1). The Monte Carlo Simulation method results show STOIIP estimates of P90: 8.295 MMSTB, P50: 35.953 MMSTB, dan P10: 75.127 MMSTB, indicates potential reserves for economic analysis and development. The final reserve estimate value is due to the influence of shale distribution, especially the structural-dispersed type, which is significant in reducing the effective porosity and permeability of the reservoir. In addition, the results of petrophysical analysis show that the main parameters of the pay summary results include net pay 153.4 ft, shale volume (Vsh) 36.6%, total porosity (PHIT) 17.4%, and water saturation (Sw) 64.8%. Meanwhile, seismic analysis with RMS (Root Mean Square) attributes supports the identification of potential hydrocarbon zones in the “PYN” field. The research results are expected to not only improve the accuracy of reserve estimation, but also support more effective field development planning, reduce reserve estimation risk, and optimize operational efficiency in shaly sand reservoirs with complex heterogeneity levels.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Cadangan Hidrokarbon, Distribusi Shale, Monte Carlo Simulation, Shaly Sand Reservoir. Hydrocarbon Reserves, Monte Carlo Simulation, Shale Distribution, Shaly Sand Reservoir.
Subjects:	Q Science > QE Geology > QE471 Sedimentary rocks. Sedimentology Q Science > QE Geology > QE538.5 Seismic tomography; Seismic waves. Elastic waves Q Science > QE Geology > QE539.2.S4 Seismic models Q Science > QE Geology > QE601 Geology, Structural
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geophysics Engineering > 33201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Alfiyan Syahrul Lathif
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2025 03:03
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 03:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120773

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