Suroto, Erina Triana (2025) Analisis Inundasi Tsunami Pesisir Provinsi Jawa Timur Berdasarkan Potensi Gempa Bumi Megathrust Segmen Selatan Jawa-Bali. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
![]() |
Text
5016211017-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf Restricted to Repository staff only Download (13MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Wilayah pesisir selatan Pulau Jawa merupakan kawasan dengan tingkat kerentanan tinggi terhadap bencana tsunami akibat keberadaannya pada zona subduksi aktif antara Lempeng Indo-Australia dan Lempeng Eurasia. Potensi terjadinya gempa bumi besar disertai tsunami pada zona seismic gap menjadikan analisis bahaya tsunami sebagai langkah krusial dalam mendukung perencanaan mitigasi bencana. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan bahaya tsunami di pesisir Jawa Timur berdasarkan empat skenario gempa bumi dengan epicenter berada pada segmen megathrust Selatan Jawa–Bali menggunakan perangkat lunak COMCOT v1.7. Dua skenario event tsunami historis (Banyuwangi 1994 dan Pangandaran 2006) digunakan sebagai validasi model tsunami. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa wilayah dengan jarak rendaman maksimum bervariasi pada setiap skenario yang sebagian besar dipengaruhi oleh tinggi gelombang yang tiba di pantai akibat kedekatan wilayah dengan sumber gempa dan didukung oleh karakteristik lereng pantai yang datar hinga landai. Pada wilayah Selatan Jawa Timur jarak rendaman maksimum terjadi di Kecamatan Panggul (Trenggalek), Yosowilangun (Lumajang), dan Gumuk Mas (Jember). Di wilayah Selat Bali, rendaman maksimum ditemukan di Kecamatan Tegaldlimo dan Muncar (Banyuwangi), sedangkan di Selat Madura jarak rendaman maksimum terjadi di Kecamatan Arjasa (Sumenep). Waktu tiba gelombang tsunami tercepat berkisar antara 13 hingga 78 menit bergantung pada kedekatan wilayah terhadap sumber gempa. Analisis status bahaya tsunami mengacu pada pedoman Pelayanan Peringatan Dini Tsunami InaTEWS menunjukkan Kabupaten Banyuwangi menjadi wilayah paling terdampak pada kelas bahaya Awas dengan luas rendaman terbesar 30,391 km2, sedangkan Kabupaten Sumenep tercatat sebagai wilayah terdampak pada kelas Siaga dan Waspada, dengan luas rendaman terbesar pada kelas Siaga dan Waspada berturut-turut 24,278 km2 dan 5,764 km2. Validasi model menunjukkan nilai statistik MAPE sebesar 39,83%, yang mengindikasikan bahwa model cukup representatif, meskipun peningkatan akurasi masih diperlukan untuk menghasilkan estimasi genangan yang lebih realistis. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi acuan awal dalam perencanaan mitigasi tsunami di wilayah pesisir Jawa Timur.
==========================================================================================================================================
The southern coastal region of Java Island is highly vulnerable to tsunami disasters due to its location within the active subduction zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate. The potential occurrence of large earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis in the seismic gap zone makes tsunami hazard analysis a crucial step in supporting disaster mitigation planning. This study aims to model tsunami hazards along the East Java coast based on four earthquake scenarios with epicenters located along the South Java–Bali megathrust segment using the COMCOT v1.7 software. Two historical tsunami events (Banyuwangi 1994 and Pangandaran 2006) are used for tsunami model validation. The simulation results show that areas with the maximum inundation distance vary in each scenario, largely influenced by the wave height upon arrival at the coast, which depends on the proximity to the earthquake source and is further supported by flat to gently sloping coastal characteristics. In the southern region of East Java, the maximum inundation distances are observed in Panggul District (Trenggalek), Yosowilangun District (Lumajang), and Gumuk Mas District (Jember). In the Bali Strait region, maximum inundation occurs in Tegaldlimo and Muncar Districts (Banyuwangi), while in the Madura Strait, the farthest inundation is recorded in Arjasa District (Sumenep). The earliest tsunami arrival times range from 13 to 78 minutes, depending on the proximity to the earthquake source. Tsunami hazard status analysis based on the InaTEWS Early Warning Service Guidelines indicates that Banyuwangi Regency is the most affected area in the “Alert” (Awas) category, with the largest inundation area of 30.391 km², while Sumenep Regency is identified as affected under the “Standby” (Siaga) and “Advisory” (Waspada) categories, with maximum inundation areas of 24.278 km² and 5.764 km², respectively. Model validation yields a MAPE statistical value of 39.83%, indicating that the model is fairly representative, although accuracy improvements are still needed to produce more realistic inundation estimates. The results of this study are expected to serve as an initial reference for tsunami mitigation planning in the East Java coastal region.
Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
---|---|
Uncontrolled Keywords: | Tsunami Modeling, COMCOT, Megathrust |
Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare > HV551.5.I4 Hazard mitigation |
Divisions: | Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
Depositing User: | Erina Triana Suroto |
Date Deposited: | 24 Jul 2025 03:48 |
Last Modified: | 24 Jul 2025 03:48 |
URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120952 |
Actions (login required)
![]() |
View Item |