Santosa, Wahid Masum (2025) Analisis Komparatif Penilaian Siklus Hidup Terhadap Skenario Penambahan Pembangkit Energi Baru Terbarukan Dalam Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2021–2030 menargetkan peningkatan penggunaan Energi Baru Terbarukan (EBT) hingga 23–24% pada tahun 2030. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi dampak lingkungan dari skenario penambahan pembangkit EBT, mengidentifikasi trade-off aspek finansial dan sosial, serta menyusun strategi optimal implementasi EBT di sektor kelistrikan.pada tiga skenario di tahun 20230, yaitu Business as Usual (BaU), Skenario Optimal (peningkatan EBT hingga 23%), dan Skenario Low Carbon (peningkatan EBT hingga 24,2%). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) untuk menilai dampak lingkungan. Batas sistem LCA mencakup Cradle to gate meliputi fase penerimaan bahan bakar, pembangkitan listrik, hingga distribusi listrik. Analisis dampak lingkungan dilakukan menggunakan metode ReCiPe midpoint dan endpoint dengan perangkat lunak OpenLCA dan basis data Ecoinvent. Trade-off pada aspek finansial dan sosial dievaluasi melalui analisis Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Environmental Cost Indicator (ECI), penciptaan lapangan kerja, dan dampak kesehatan manusia. Strategi optimalisasi disusun menggunakan metode integrasi Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA)- Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) dan matriks TOWS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan Skenario Low Carbon unggul pada aspek lingkungan, finansial, dan sosial. Skenario ini mampu menurunkan emisi Global Warming Potential (GWP) hingga 10,0% (607,39 miliar kg CO₂ eq) dan Particulate Matter Formation (PMF) sebesar 10,2% (12,71 miliar kg PM2.5 eq) dibandingkan Business as Usual 2030, serta menghasilkan dampak terendah pada kesehatan manusia. Meskipun meningkatkan penggunaan lahan dan konsumsi air, skenario ini menurunkan LCOE dan menunjukkan efisiensi biaya kerusakan lingkungan (Environmental Cost Indicator) yang lebih baik. Kontribusinya terhadap target Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) mencapai pengurangan 67,59 MtCO₂ eq. Berdasarkan analisis terintegrasi SWARA-COPRAS dan matriks TOWS, penelitian ini merekomendasikan strategi implementasi low carbon scenario 2030 yang mencakup: strategi agresif memanfaatkan kekuatan untuk peluang pendanaan iklim, strategi turn-around mengatasi Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) tinggi dengan pendanaan hijau, strategi diversifikasi memanfaatkan LCOE lebih rendah untuk advokasi kebijakan dan pengembangan lapangan kerja hijau, dan strategi defensif meminimalkan kelemahan seperti ketergantungan mineral dan disrupsi tenaga kerja melalui ekonomi sirkular dan pelatihan ulang.
===================================================================================================================================The National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2021-2030 targets an increase in the use of New Renewable Energy (NRE/EBT) to 23–24% by 2030. This study aims to evaluate the environmental impacts of new renewable energy (EBT) expansion scenarios, to identify trade-offs in financial and social aspects, and to formulate optimal strategies for EBT implementation in the electricity sector under three scenarios in 2030: Business as Usual (BaU), Optimal Scenario (increase in EBT up to 23%), and Low Carbon Scenario (increase in EBT up to 24.2%). The study uses the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach to assess environmental impacts. The LCA system boundary encompasses Cradle-to-gate stages, including fuel reception, electricity generation, and electric power distribution phases. Environmental impact analysis was conducted using the ReCiPe midpoint and endpoint methods, with the OpenLCA software and Ecoinvent database. Trade-offs on financial and social aspects are evaluated through analysis of the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Environmental Cost Indicator (ECI), job creation, and human health impacts. Optimization strategies were developed using the integrated Step-wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) - Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS) method and the TOWS matrix. The results of the study show that the Low Carbon Scenario outperforms others in environmental, financial, and social aspects. This scenario is capable of reducing Global Warming Potential (GWP) emissions by up to 10.0% (607.39 billion kg CO₂ eq) and Particulate Matter Formation (PMF) by up to 10.2% (12.71 billion kg PM2.5 eq) compared to the 2030 Business as Usual scenario, while also generating the lowest human health impact. Although it increases land use and water consumption, this scenario reduces the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and demonstrates better cost-efficiency in terms of environmental damage, as reflected by the Environmental Cost Indicator (ECI). Its contribution to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target is significant, achieving an emission reduction of 67.59 MtCO₂ eq. Based on the integrated SWARA-COPRAS analysis and the TOWS matrix, this study recommends the following strategies for implementing the Low Carbon Scenario 2030: an aggressive strategy to leverage strengths for climate funding opportunities; a turnaround strategy to overcome high Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) through green financing; a diversification strategy to utilize lower LCOE for policy advocacy and green job creation; and a defensive strategy to mitigate weaknesses such as mineral depe
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Energi Baru Terbarukan (EBT), transisi energi, Strategi Optima, Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga lIstrik (RUPTL). |
| Subjects: | T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD194.6 Environmental impact analysis |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Wahid Ma`sum Santosa |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Jul 2025 02:09 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Jul 2025 02:12 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/121744 |
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