Model Simulasi Sistem Dinamik Rantai Pasok Biodiesel Di Indonesia Untuk Menentukan Skenario Kebijakan Program B50 dan B100

Viradhika, Davina Panorama (2025) Model Simulasi Sistem Dinamik Rantai Pasok Biodiesel Di Indonesia Untuk Menentukan Skenario Kebijakan Program B50 dan B100. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kebijakan program B50 yang ditargetkan untuk tahun 2026 serta program B100 menjadi sebuah langkah strategis dalam mengurangi ketergantungan impor solar, meningkatkan ketahanan energi nasional, dan berdampak pada sektor ekonomi. Namun, dalam implementasinya terdapat beberapa tantangan termasuk kesiapan infrastruktur, ketersediaan bahan baku yaitu kelapa sawit, serta dukungan finansial bagi produsen biodiesel. Kompleksitas rantai pasok biodiesel yang melibatkan banyak aktor, serta diperumit dengan ketidakpastian yang terjadi antara pasar dan dampak kebijakan yang bersifat dinamis. Mengatasi tantangan ini perlu menggunakan pendekatan analisis yang mampu untuk mengevaluasi dampak kebijakan secara menyeluruh. Salah satu metode yang dapat digunakan yaitu permodelan sistem dinamik yang menjadi solusi untuk memahami interaksi antar variabel dalam sistem termasuk hubungan kausal, interaksi, dan keterlambatan waktu. Penelitian ini berfokus pada analisis rantai pasok biodiesel dari sektor hulu hingga menengah yaitu perkebunan kelapa sawit, industri CPO, dan industri biodiesel. Simulasi dilakukan dalam dua bagian yaitu kondisi eksisting dan skenario kebijakan. Hasil simulasi eksisting menunjukkan bahwa target B50 pada tahun 2026 belum dapat tercapai, dimana masih kekurangan produksi biodiesel sekitar 2,94 juta kiloliter dan baru tercapai perkiraan di tahun 2036. Untuk program B100 jika target realisasinya di tahun 2045 masih terjadi defisit sekitar 14,3 juta ton CPO. Oleh karena itu, dirumuskan 3 skenario utama yaitu peningkatan intensifikasi (Skenario 1A), ekstensifikasi (Skenario 1B), produktivitas CPO (Skenario 2), dan pemanfaatan minyak jelantah sebagai bahan baku biodiesel (Skenario 3). Skenario 2 memanfaatkan penerapan teknologi pengolahan modern seperti penggunaan teknologi untuk advanced milling technologies, termasuk penggunaan third-generation mills, sistem pre-treatment modern, dan penerapan total productive maintenance untuk meningkatkan efisiensi konversi serta untuk skenario 3 dengan memproduksi minyak jelantah menjadi tambahan pasokan biodiesel. Hasil simulasi untuk skenario tunggal tidak cukup kuat untuk menutupi gap pasokan, karena itu dirumuskan skenario kombinasi. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi menunjukkan kebijakan penggabungan antara intensifikasi, peningkatan produktivitas CPO, dan diversifikasi bahan baku biodiesel berdampak signifikan untuk memenuhi target mandatori pemerintah program biodiesel.
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The B50 program policy targeted for 2026, as well as the B100 program, represents a strategic step in reducing dependence on diesel imports, enhancing national energy resilience, and impacting the economic sector. However, in its implementation, several challenges arise, including infrastructure readiness, the availability of raw materials such as palm oil, and financial support for biodiesel producers. The complexity of the biodiesel supply chain, which involves many actors, is further complicated by the uncertainties that occur between the market and the dynamic nature of policy impacts. Addressing this challenge requires an analytical approach that can comprehensively evaluate policy impacts. One of the methods that can be used is dynamic system modelling, which serves as a solution to understand the interactions between variables in the system, including causal relationships, interactions, and time delays. This research focuses on the analysis of the biodiesel supply chain from the upstream to the midstream sectors, namely palm oil plantations, the CPO industry, and the biodiesel industry. The simulation was conducted in two parts: the existing conditions and the policy scenario. The results of the existing simulation show that the B50 target in 2026 cannot be achieved, with a biodiesel production shortfall of approximately 2.94 million kiloliters, which is only expected to be met by 2036. For the B100 program, if the realization target is set for 2045, there will still be a deficit of about 14.3 million tons of CPO. Therefore, three main scenarios were formulated: intensification improvement (Scenario 1A), extensification (Scenario 1B), CPO productivity (Scenario 2), and the utilization of used cooking oil as a biodiesel feedstock (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 utilizes modern processing technologies, including advanced milling technologies, such as the use of third-generation mills, modern pre-treatment systems, and the implementation of total productive maintenance, to improve conversion efficiency. Scenario 3 involves producing biodiesel from used cooking oil to supplement the supply. The simulation results for single scenarios were not strong enough to cover the supply gap hence a combination scenario was formulated. Based on the simulation results, the policy of combining intensification, increasing CPO productivity, and diversifying biodiesel feedstocks has a significant impact on meeting the government's mandatory biodiesel program targets.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	B50 program, B100 program, biodiesel supply chain, biodiesel policy, dynamic systems program B50, program B100, rantai pasok biodiesel, sistem dinamik, skenario kebijakan biodiesel
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD38.5 Business logistics--Cost effectiveness. Supply chain management. ERP Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA614.8 Differentiable dynamical systems T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery > TJ808 Renewable energy sources. Energy harvesting. T Technology > TP Chemical technology > TP359.B46 Biodiesel fuels.
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Davina Panorama Viradhika
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2025 09:42
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2025 09:42
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122345

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