Sendary, Siska Widiya (2024) Analisis Peramalan Jumlah Klaim Program Tunjangan Hari Tua (THT) di PT Taspen (Persero) KC Tasikmalaya Menggunakan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. Project Report. [s.n.], [s.l.]. (Unpublished)
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Abstract
Kerja praktik dilakukan di PT Taspen (Persero) Kantor Cabang Tasikmalaya dengan fokus pada analisis peramalan jumlah klaim mingguan Program Tunjangan Hari Tua (THT) selama tahun 2023. Tujuan dari kegiatan ini adalah untuk memahami pola pengajuan klaim yang terjadi secara musiman dan menyusun model prediksi jangka pendek yang dapat digunakan sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam pengambilan keputusan. Penulis menggunakan metode SARIMA sebagai pendekatan utama dalam analisis deret waktu. Proses dimulai dengan eksplorasi data secara deskriptif, dilanjutkan dengan pengujian kestasioneran, identifikasi model melalui grafik ACF dan PACF, serta evaluasi model dengan pengujian parameter dan residual. Berdasarkan hasil analisis, model SARIMA (0,0,0)(0,1,1)^4 dipilih sebagai model terbaik karena memenuhi seluruh asumsi yang deperlukan. Model ini kemudian digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah klaim dalam empat minggu kedepan. Diharapkan hasil dari analisis ini dapat memberikan gambaran yang bermanfaat bagi perusahaan dalam merencanakan pelayanan dan pengelolaan program THT secara lebih optimal.
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This internship was conducted at PT Taspen (Persero) Tasikmalaya Brach Office, focusing on forecasting the number of weekly claims for the Old Age Allowance (THT) program throughout 2023. The objective was to analyze seasonal patterns in claim submissions and develop a short-term forecasting model that can support operational planning and decision-making. The SARIMA method was applied as the main time series approach. The analysis began with descriptive statistics, followed by stationerity tests, model identification using ACF and PACF plots, and further evaluation through parameter significance testing and residual diagnostics. Based on the results, the SARIMA (0,0,0)(0,1,1)^4 model was selected as the best fit, as it met all the required assumptions. This model was then used to forecast the number of claims for the next four weeks. The findigs are expected to help the company in optimizing service planning and risk management for the THT Program.
| Item Type: | Monograph (Project Report) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Klaim THT, Peramalan, SARIMA, Deret Waktu, PT Taspen ========================================================= THT Claims, Forecasting, SARIMA, Time Series Analysis, PT Taspen |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.2 Stochastic analysis Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Siska Widiya Sendary |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2025 08:32 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2025 08:32 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122610 |
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