Analisis Sensitivitas Pemodelan Hidrodinamika Di Wilayah Pesisir Menggunakan Global Sensitive Analysis Dengan Sobol Method

Rahardian, Muhammad Rafly (2025) Analisis Sensitivitas Pemodelan Hidrodinamika Di Wilayah Pesisir Menggunakan Global Sensitive Analysis Dengan Sobol Method. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pergerakan arus yang terjadi di wilayah pantai sangat dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi elevasi muka air. Dengan adanya dinamika laut dan hubungan terhadap lingkungan sekitarnya menyebabkan pendekatan pola arus dan sebaran sedimen menjadi kompleks. Sejalan dengan kemajuan teknologi, pendekatan dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan model numerik persamaan hidrodinamika. Kualitas pemodelan hidrodinamika bergantung pada kualitas variabel yang digunakan. Namun, ketersediaan data yang dapat digunakan secara spasial dan/atau temporal sangatlah terbatas. Dengan demikian, penelitian akan dilakukan dengan menimbang kontribusi variabel angin, debit, pasang surut, dan konsentrasi sedimen terhadap nilai tumpukan sedimen dan kecepatan arus. Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan pada dua titik sampel yang memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda pada dua musim. Metode yang digunakan merupakan pendekatan dugaan persamaan regresi GLS ARMA dalam mendefinisikan persamaan pemodelan dan analisis sensitif dilakukan menggunakan Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) metode Sobol. Persamaan regresi menunjukkan nilai p-value yang signifikan pada model GLS ARMA (0,1). pengujian dilakukan pada model persamaan menggunakan metode sobol untuk mencari variabel yang sensitif. Pada pemodelan arus, variabel debit memiliki kontribusi yang paling besar secara langsung terhadap variani perubahan arus. Sedangkan pada model sedimentasi, variabel konsentrasi memiliki kontribusi yang paling besar secara langsung terhadap variani perubahan sedimen. Selain pengaruh langsung, hubungan antara angin dan debit memiliki kontribusi sebesar -0,0046 dan 0,0023 pada musim Barat dan musim Timur terhadap hasil model sedimentasi. Sedangkan pada pemodelan arus, hubungan antara angin dan debit memiliki kontribusi sebesar -0,0040 dan 0,0047 pada musim Barat dan musim Timur. Proses pemodelan dilakukan kembali dengan memberikan dua skenario perubahan berdasarkan variabel yang sensitif secara langsung dan dibandingkan menggunakan metode RRMSE. Pada pemodelan arus, perubahan hasil terjadi sebesar 66% pada setiap skenario perubahan antara rata-rata data model perubahan terhadap model sebenarnya. Sedangkan pada pemodelan sedimen, perubahan terjadi sebesar 37% dan 334% pada setiap skenario perubahan antara rata-rata data model perubahan terhadap model sebenarnya.
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The movement of currents in coastal areas is greatly influenced by fluctuations in water elevation. The dynamics of the sea and its relationship with the surrounding environment make the approach to current patterns and sediment distribution complex. In line with technological advances, this approach can be carried out using numerical models of hydrodynamic equations. The quality of hydrodynamic modelling depends on the quality of the variables used. However, the availability of data that can be used spatially and/or temporally is very limited. Therefore, the study will be conducted by considering the contribution of wind, discharge, tidal, and sediment concentration variables to sediment accumulation values and current velocity. Sensitivity analysis was performed on two sample points with different characteristics in two seasons. The method used was the GLS ARMA regression equation estimation approach in defining the modelling equation, and sensitivity analysis was performed using the Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) Sobol method. The regression equation shows a significant p-value in the GLS ARMA model (0.1). Testing was conducted on the equation model using the Sobol method to identify sensitive variables. In current modelling, the discharge variable has the largest direct contribution to current variation. In sedimentation modelling, the concentration variable has the largest direct contribution to sediment variation. In addition to direct effects, the relationship between wind and discharge contributed -0.0046 and 0.0023 in the West and East seasons, respectively, to the sedimentation model results. In the flow modelling, the relationship between wind and discharge contributed -0.0040 and 0.0047 in the West and East seasons, respectively. The modelling process was repeated by providing two change scenarios based on directly sensitive variables and compared using the RRMSE method. In flow modelling, the change in results was 66% in each change scenario between the average data of the change model and the actual model. Meanwhile, in sediment modelling, the change was 37% and 334% in each change scenario between the average data of the change model and the actual model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analisis Sobol, Dinamaika Laut, Delft3D, Global Sensitivity Analysis, Pemodelan Hidrodinamika, RRMSE, Delft3D, Global Sensitivity Analysis, Hydrodynamic Modeling, Ocean Dynamics, RRMSE, Sobol Analysis
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races > HT390+ Coastal zone management Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA911 Fluid dynamics. Hydrodynamics T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC175.2 Sediment transport T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering > TC424 Water levels
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Rafly Rahardian
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2025 06:07
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2025 06:07
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122804

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