Azhari, Muhammad Afthon (2025) Pemodelan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Provinsi Jawa Timur dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method of Moments Blundell-Bond. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
![[thumbnail of 5003211115-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf]](http://repository.its.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
5003211115-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (12MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) merupakan salah satu indikator kinerja utama pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Timur yang penting dalam menilai keberhasilan di bidang ketenagakerjaan. Mengingat karakteristik variabel ekonomi yang cenderung dinamis, penelitian ini menerapkan metode regresi data panel dinamis. Metode ini memungkinkan identifikasi dampak jangka pendek sekaligus jangka panjang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan tingkat pengangguran terbuka regresi data panel dinamis pendekatan Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Blundell–Bond untuk mendapatkan estimasi yang akurat dalam mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi TPT di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Dengan penerapan GMM Blundell–Bond, penelitian ini mengatasi potensi endogenitas dalam data panel dinamis, sekaligus meningkatkan keandalan estimasi. Hasil analisis GMM Blundell–Bond menunjukkan bahwa variabel laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja, dan upah minimum kabupaten/kota berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Jawa Timur dengan masing masing memiliki efek jangka pendek terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka sebesar -0,165; -0,120; dan 0,087 persen (ceteris paribus). Sedangkan dalam jangka panjang, memberikan efek sebesar -0,918; -0,665; dan 0,484 persen (ceteris paribus). Nilai R² yang dihasilkan model sebesar 74,74%.
========================================================================================================================================
The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is one of the key performance indicators used by the East Java Provincial Government to evaluate success in the employment sector. Considering the dynamic nature of economic variables, this study applies a dynamic panel data regression method. This approach allows for the identification of both short-term and long-term effects. The study aims to model the open unemployment rate with a dynamic panel regression Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Blundell–Bond GMM approach to to obtain accurate estimates in identifying the factors that influence OUR in East Java Province. By applying the Blundell-Bond GMM, this study addresses potential endogeneity in dynamic panel data while enhancing the reliability of the estimates. The results of the Blundell–Bond GMM analysis indicate that economic growth rate, labor force participation rate, and minimum wage at the district/city level significantly affect the open unemployment rate in East Java. Each of these variables has short-term effects on the unemployment rate amounting to -0.165, -0.120, and 0.087 percentage, respectively (ceteris paribus). In the long run, their effects are -0.918, -0.665, and 0.484 point percentage, respectively (ceteris paribus). The R² value produced by the model is 74.74%.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Ketenagakerjaan, Provinsi Jawa Timur, Regresi Data Panel Dinamis, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka,Dynamic Panel Data Regression, East Java Province, Employment, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Open Unemployment Rate |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Muhammad Afthon Azhari |
| Date Deposited: | 31 Jul 2025 07:54 |
| Last Modified: | 31 Jul 2025 07:54 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/124007 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |