Risk Assessment Distribusi Pupuk Bersubsidi Wilayah Jawa Timur-3 Menggunakan House Of Risk (HOR)

Andriansyah, Ahmad Ryan (2025) Risk Assessment Distribusi Pupuk Bersubsidi Wilayah Jawa Timur-3 Menggunakan House Of Risk (HOR). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri pupuk memegang peranan strategis dalam mendukung ketahanan pangan nasional, khususnya di sektor pertanian yang menjadi tulang punggung perekonomian Indonesia. Jawa Timur merupakan wilayah dengan alokasi pupuk bersubsidi terbesar secara nasional. Salah satu wilayah yang krusial dalam distribusi pupuk bersubsidi adalah kawasan Tapal Kuda di Jawa Timur meliputi Kabupaten Banyuwangi, Jember, Bondowoso, Situbondo, Lumajang, dan sekitarnya. Meski demikian, daerah ini justru kerap mengalami permasalahan serius dalam proses distribusi, seperti kelangkaan pupuk yang terjadi dua hingga tiga kali setiap musim tanam. Hal ini mengakibatkan antrean panjang di kios, keterlambatan pemupukan, dan penurunan hasil panen. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sumber risiko utama dalam distribusi pupuk bersubsidi di wilayah Jawa Timur-3 serta merumuskan strategi mitigasi yang tepat dengan pendekatan House of Risk (HOR). Pengumpulan data dilakukan dalam tiga tahap, yaitu wawancara awal dengan 7 narasumber ahli untuk mengidentifikasi peristiwa dan penyebab risiko, penyebaran kuesioner kepada 543 pelaku distribusi guna memperoleh penilaian tingkat keparahan dan frekuensi risiko, serta wawancara lanjutan kepada tujuh narasumber untuk mengukur hubungan antar elemen risiko. Wawancara tambahan juga dilakukan kepada 9 narasumber untuk merumuskan strategi mitigasi berdasarkan prioritas risiko yang telah diidentifikasi. Analisis menunjukkan bahwa risiko utama mencakup ketidaksesuaian jadwal distribusi, keterbatasan kapasitas gudang, serta perubahan kebijakan yang berdampak pada pola distribusi. Rekomendasi strategi mitigasi yang diusulkan meliputi penetapan jadwal distribusi yang lebih terukur, analisis kapasitas gudang aktual berdasarkan kebutuhan distribusi, serta peningkatan koordinasi antar pemangku kepentingan melalui sistem pemantauan digital. Penelitian ini berkontribusi dalam penguatan manajemen risiko rantai pasok pupuk bersubsidi dan memberikan dasar bagi pengambilan keputusan yang lebih responsif dan berbasis data.
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The fertilizer industry plays a strategic role in supporting national food security, particularly in the agricultural sector, which serves as the backbone of Indonesia’s economy. One of the most crucial areas for subsidized fertilizer distribution is the Tapal Kuda region of East Java, which includes the districts of Banyuwangi, Jember, Bondowoso, Situbondo, Lumajang, and surrounding areas. This region receives the largest allocation of subsidized fertilizer nationally. However, it frequently faces serious distribution issues, such as fertilizer shortages that occur two to three times each planting season. These shortages result in long queues at kiosks, delays in fertilization, and reduced crop yields. This study aims to identify the main sources of risk in subsidized fertilizer distribution within the East Java-3 region and formulate appropriate mitigation strategies using the House of Risk (HOR) approach. Data collection was conducted in three stages: an initial interview with seven expert informants to identify risk events and risk agents; a questionnaire distributed to 543 fertilizer distribution actors to assess the severity and frequency of risks; and follow-up interviews with the same seven informants to evaluate the correlation between risk elements. Additional interviews with nine informants were conducted to formulate mitigation strategies based on identified risk priorities. The analysis revealed key risks such as distribution schedule mismatches, limited warehouse capacity, and policy changes affecting distribution patterns. Recommended mitigation strategies include establishing a more measurable distribution schedule, analyzing actual warehouse capacity relative to distribution needs, and enhancing coordination among stakeholders through digital monitoring systems. This research contributes to strengthening risk management in the subsidized fertilizer supply chain and provides a foundation for more responsive and data-driven decision-making.
Keywords: Fertilizer Distribution, House of Risk, Risk Management, Subsidized Fertilizer.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Distribusi Pupuk, House of Risk, Manajemen Risiko, Pupuk Bersubsidi. Fertilizer Distribution, House of Risk, Risk Management, Subsidized Fertilizer.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD38.5 Business logistics--Cost effectiveness. Supply chain management. ERP H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management S Agriculture > S Agriculture (General) > S633.5 Fertilizers
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Business Management > (S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Ahmad Ryan Andriansyah
Date Deposited:	31 Jul 2025 08:38
Last Modified:	31 Jul 2025 08:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/124562

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