Pemodelan Rasio Gini Provinsi di Pulau Jawa dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method of Moment Blundell-Bond

Putri, Istafada Faisya (2025) Pemodelan Rasio Gini Provinsi di Pulau Jawa dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method of Moment Blundell-Bond. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan merupakan suatu kondisi dimana distribusi pendapatan yang diterima masyarakat tidak merata. Kondisi ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan yang ekstrem dapat menimbulkan persepsi ketidakadilan terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat. Alat ukur yang digunakan untuk mengukur ketidakmerataan dari distribusi pendapatan adalah rasio gini. Pulau Jawa merupakan pulau yang memberikan kontribusi terhadap perekonomian tertinggi di Indonesia memiliki rasio gini yang tergolong tinggi pada setiap provinsinya di antara wilayah-wilayah lain di Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model rasio gini di Pulau Jawa berdasarkan faktor-faktor yang diduga memengaruhinya seperti Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), Persentase Penduduk Miskin (PPM), Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK), dan Angka Partisipasi Kasar SMA/Sederajat (APK). Metode yang digunakan adalah Regresi Data Panel Dinamis pendekatan Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Blundell-Bond dengan pendekatan GMM Arellano-Bond sebagai pembanding. Sumber data dan variabel penelitian yang digunakan berasal dari website BPS dengan sampel enam provinsi di Pulau Jawa dengan periode pengamatan tahun 2015 hingga 2019. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi, GMM Arellano-Bond lebih dipilih sebagai model terbaik. Variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan adalah Rasio Gini (RG) tahun sebelumnya (positif), PDRB (negatif), PPM (positif), TPAK (positif), dan APK (positif). Hasil estimasi memiliki koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 80,57% Secara jangka pendek elastisitas untuk PDRB terhadap RG sebesar -0,0127 dan elastisitas jangka panjang sebesar -0,0442. Elastisitas jangka pendek untuk PPM terhadap RG sebesar 0,0325 dan elastisitas jangka panjang sebesar 0,1131. Elastisitas jangka pendek untuk TPAK terhadap RG sebesar 0,3951 dan elastisitas jangka panjang sebesar 1,3747. Elastisitas jangka pendek untuk APK SMA/sederajat terhadap RG sebesar 0,2227 dan elastisitas jangka panjang sebesar 0,7749.
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Income distribution inequality refers to a condition where income distribution within society is uneven. Extreme income inequality can create a perception of injustice regarding societal welfare. The Gini ratio is a commonly used measure to assess income distribution disparity. Java Island, which contributes the highest to Indonesia’s economy, has a relatively high gini ratio in each of its provinces compared to other regions in the country. This study aims to develop a model of gini ratio in Java Island based on suspected influencing factors such as Gross Regional Domestic Product (PDRB), Percentage of Poor Population (PPM), Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK), and Senior High School Gross Enrollment Rate (APK). The method used is Dynamic Panel Data Regression with the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Blundell-Bond approach, using the GMM Arellano-Bond approach as a comparison. The data sources and research variables are obtained from the official BPS website, with a sample of six provinces in Java Island and an observation period from 2015 to 2019. Based on the estimation results, the Arellano-Bond GMM is selected as the best model. The variables that have a significant effect are the previous year's Gini Ratio (positive), PDRB (negative), PPM (positive), TPAK (positive), and APK (positive). The model has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 80.57%. In the short run, the elasticity of PDRB with respect to the Gini Ratio is -0.0127, and the long-run elasticity is -0.0442. The short-run elasticity of PPM with respect to the Gini Ratio is 0.0325, and the long-run elasticity is 0.1131. The short-run elasticity of TPAK with respect to the Gini Ratio is 0.3951, and the long-run elasticity is 1.3747. The short-run elasticity of APK with respect to the Gini Ratio is 0.2227, and the long-run elasticity is 0.7749.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Data Panel, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Pulau Jawa, Rasio Gini, Regresi Panel Dinamis, Dynamic Panel Regression, Gini Ratio, Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Java Island, Panel Data.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Istafada Faisya Putri
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2025 03:30
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 03:30
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/125608

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