Pemodelan ISPA Pada Balita di Kabupaten Tuban Menggunakan Regresi Spasial

Nuruzzahrah, Raihanah (2025) Pemodelan ISPA Pada Balita di Kabupaten Tuban Menggunakan Regresi Spasial. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Infeksi Saluran Pernapasan Akut (ISPA) merupakan salah satu penyakit infeksi utama yang menyerang balita dan menjadi penyumbang signifikan terhadap angka morbiditas anak di Indonesia. Kabupaten Tuban dipilih sebagai lokasi penelitian karena tingginya persentase kasus ISPA pada balita terutama di wilayah barat seperti Kecamatan Bancar, Tambakboyo, Jatirogo, Kenduruan, dan Bangilan yang mencatat jumlah kasus tertinggi. Untuk memperoleh model terbaik dalam menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi penyebaran ISPA, dilakukan uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM) terhadap model regresi spasial, yaitu SAR, SEM, dan SARMA. Hasil uji menunjukkan bahwa model Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) merupakan model yang paling sesuai untuk digunakan. Model SAR kemudian digunakan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel persentase balita dengan gizi buruk, bayi dengan Berat Badan Lahir Rendah (BBLR), bayi yang menerima ASI eksklusif, pemberian vitamin A, dan imunisasi dasar lengkap terhadap persentase kasus ISPA. Hasil analisis menunjukkan adanya efek spasial positif antar wilayah dengan nilai koefisien ρ sebesar 0,459, yang mengindikasikan bahwa persentase ISPA di suatu desa dipengaruhi oleh desa-desa di sekitarnya. Dari seluruh variabel, hanya ASI eksklusif yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap persentase ISPA, namun dengan arah positif yang tidak sesuai dengan teori. Hal ini diduga disebabkan oleh dua faktor: efek keterlambatan (lag effect) dari manfaat ASI terhadap kekebalan tubuh balita, serta potensi penularan penyakit dari ibu ke anak akibat intensitas kontak yang tinggi selama proses pemberian ASI. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya pendekatan spasial dalam perencanaan intervensi kesehatan masyarakat serta perlunya evaluasi jangka panjang terhadap program kesehatan balita untuk menurunkan angka kejadian ISPA di Kabupaten Tuban.
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Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) are among the leading infectious diseases affecting toddlers and contribute significantly to child morbidity rates in Indonesia. Tuban Regency was selected as the study area due to its high percentage of ARI cases among toddlers, particularly in the western regions such as Bancar, Tambakboyo, Jatirogo, Kenduruan, and Bangilan Districts, which recorded the highest number of cases. To obtain the most appropriate model for analyzing the factors influencing ARI spread, Lagrange Multiplier (LM) tests were conducted on spatial regression models, namely SAR, SEM, and SARMA. The test results indicated that the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model was the most suitable for use. The SAR model was then applied to examine the effects of several variables: the percentage of toddlers with malnutrition, babies with low birth weight (LBW), babies receiving exclusive breastfeeding, vitamin A supplementation, and complete basic immunization on ARI percentage. The analysis revealed a positive spatial effect between regions, with a ρ coefficient value of 0.459, indicating that the ARI percentage in each village is influenced by neighboring villages. Among all variables, exclusive breastfeeding had a statistically significant effect on the ARI percentage, but with a positive direction that contradicts theoretical expectations. This finding is suspected to be due to two factors: the lag effect of breastfeeding benefits on toddler immunity, and the potential transmission of infections from mother to child due to high contact intensity during breastfeeding. These results highlight the importance of spatial approaches in planning public health interventions and the need for long-term evaluation of child health programs to reduce the incidence of ARI in Tuban Regency.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ISPA, Balita, Regresi Spasial, Kesehatan Masyarakat, Tuban, ARI, Toddlers, Spatial Regression, Public Health, Tuban
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.6 Spatial analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Raihanah Nuruzzahrah
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2025 08:53
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 08:53
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/126137

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