Penentuan Demand Forecasting dan Inventory Policy untuk Pengelolaan Bahan Baku Berkarakteristik Engineering to Order pada Industri Pemeliharaan Ketenagalistrikan

Rosyadi, Rosa Shinta (2025) Penentuan Demand Forecasting dan Inventory Policy untuk Pengelolaan Bahan Baku Berkarakteristik Engineering to Order pada Industri Pemeliharaan Ketenagalistrikan. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri manufaktur dengan karakteristik Engineering to Order (ETO) dihadapkan tantangan dalam proses produksi berupa ketersediaan bahan baku yang diperlukan. Produk ETO dibuat secara spesifik sesuai dengan kebutuhan pelanggan melalui tahapan reverse engineering yang menyebabkan ketidakpastian permintaan pekerjaan dan kebutuhan material bahan baku yang beragam. Tesis ini dilakukan pada unit manufaktur yang dimiliki oleh industri ketenagalistrikan dengan tugas utama memproduksi kebutuhan spare parts untuk bidang pembangkitan, transmisi, dan distribusi listrik. Dalam pelaksanaan produksi, unit ini menjalankan proses produksi dengan regulasi tidak diperbolehkan adanya penyimpanan material bahan baku (no inventory policy), regulasi tersebut membuat proses perencanaan material bahan baku menjadi lebih sulit dilakukan dan mengakibatkan kekurangan material, keterlambatan produksi, dan ketidakmampuan memenuhi target waktu pengiriman, sehingga mengancam kepuasan pelanggan dan efisiensi operasional unit. Untuk menyelesaikan masalah dalam tesis ini, akan dikembangkan strategi perencanaan kebutuhan material bahan baku kritikal dengan metode demand forecasting. Forecasting dilakukan secara spesifik pada material bahan baku kritikal yang paling memengaruhi proses produksi. Metode peramalan yang digunakan meliputi regresi linear, double exponential smoothing, Winter’s Model, dan Syntetos-Boylan Approximation. Hasil demand forecasting ini akan dijadikan dasar untuk merancang kebijakan persediaan yang lebih optimal. Tiga skenario kebijakan persediaan yang akan dievaluasi meliputi sistem eksisting, sistem continuous review (s,Q), dan periodic review dan order-up-to-level (R,S) dan akan dipilih metode dengan risiko stockout terkecil, biaya paling optimal, serta metode dengan fleksibilitas penyediaan bahan baku paling baik. Hasil dari tesis diharapkan dapat memberikan alternatif dan rekomendasi inventory policy yang ideal bagi unit pemeliharaan ketenagalistrikan agar meningkatkan produktivitas, menjaga keberlangsungan proses produksi, dan memenuhi kebutuhan pelanggan secara optimal.
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Manufacturing industry with Engineering to Order (ETO) characteristics faces challenges in the production process in the form of the availability of raw materials needed. ETO products are made specifically according to customer needs through reverse engineering stages that cause uncertainty in job demand and diverse raw material needs. This thesis was conducted at a manufacturing unit owned by the electricity industry with the main task of producing spare parts for the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. In carrying out production, this unit carries out the production process with regulations that do not allow storage of raw materials (no inventory policy), these regulations make the raw material planning process more difficult and result in material shortages, production delays, and inability to meet delivery time targets, thus threatening customer satisfaction and operational efficiency of the unit. To solve the problems in this thesis, a critical raw material needs planning strategy will be developed using the demand forecasting method. Forecasting is carried out specifically on critical raw materials that most affect the production process. The forecasting methods used include linear regression, double exponential smoothing, Winter's Model and Syntetos-Boylan Approximation. The results of this demand forecasting will be used as a basis for designing a more optimal inventory policy. Three inventory policy scenarios to be evaluated include existing review, continuous review (s,Q), and periodic review and order-up-to-level (R,S) and the method with the smallest stockout risk, the most optimal cost, and the method with the best raw material supply flexibility will be selected. The results of the thesis are expected to provide alternatives and recommendations for ideal inventory policies for electrical maintenance units in order to increase productivity, maintain the continuity of the production process, and meet customer needs optimally.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Demand Forecasting, Inventory Policy, Engineering to Order, Reverse Engineering, Demand Forecasting, Inventory Policy, Engineering to Order, Reverse Engineering
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD55 Inventory control
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Rosa Shinta Rosyadi
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2025 08:39
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2025 08:39
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/127143

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