Studi Kelayakan Ekonomi Pemanfaatan Cadangan Gas Lapangan Lofin Seram Untuk Mini LNG Plant Sebagai Penyuplai Pembangkit Listrik Maluku

Ashari, Rizki (2025) Studi Kelayakan Ekonomi Pemanfaatan Cadangan Gas Lapangan Lofin Seram Untuk Mini LNG Plant Sebagai Penyuplai Pembangkit Listrik Maluku. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kepulauan Maluku memiliki potensi cadangan gas bumi terbesar di Indonesia sebesar 13.988 BSCF, dengan cadangan kontingen signifikan di Lapangan Lofin, Pulau Seram, yaitu sebesar 3.070 BSCF dan recoverable reserve sebesar 2.020 BSCF. Di sisi lain, rasio elektrifikasi di Provinsi Maluku dan Maluku Utara masing-masing masih berada pada level 95,08% dan 88,20%, lebih rendah dari rata-rata nasional. Sebagai solusi, studi ini merencanakan pembangunan Mini LNG Plant di Lapangan Lofin untuk memasok kebutuhan gas 12 pembangkit listrik tenaga mesin gas (PLTMG) berkapasitas total 300 MW dengan proyeksi kebutuhan LNG sebesar 606,818.34 m³ per tahun. Penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan model distribusi LNG yang optimal, fasilitas pendukung yang diperlukan dalam rantai suplai, serta analisis keekonomian proyek. Optimasi dilakukan menggunakan metode Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) untuk penentuan rute pelayaran terpendek, serta kombinasi Integer Linear Programming dan Set Partitioning Problem (SPP) untuk menentukan kapasitas kapal dan konfigurasi rute terbaik untuk meminimalkan biaya. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa distribusi dibagi menjadi tiga klaster. Klaster I dan II masing-masing dilayani oleh kapal berkapasitas 6.000 m³, sedangkan Klaster III menggunakan kapal berkapasitas 2.500 m³. Rute distribusi yang dihasilkan memiliki jarak tempuh antara 773.12 hingga 1,144.7 mil laut. Total belanja modal (CAPEX) tercatat sebesar US$ 93,327,437.8 dan biaya operasional tahunan (OPEX) mencapai US$ 21,101,371,01. Berdasarkan evaluasi finansial, batas ambang WACC sebesar 11,68%, proyek baru dapat dinyatakan memberikan keuntungan minimum apabila menghasilkan IRR paling tidak sebesar 13%, sehingga margin antara IRR dan WACC cukup untuk menanggung risiko dan menghasilkan profit yang layak secara ekonomi. Proyek ini dinilai menguntungkan secara finansial serta mendukung pemerataan energi dan pencapaian target Net Zero Emission pada tahun 2060.
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The Maluku Islands possess the largest proven natural gas reserves in Indonesia, amounting to 13,988 BSCF, with a significant contingent reserve located in the Lofin Field on Seram Island—estimated at 3,070 BSCF and a recoverable reserve of 2,020 BSCF. On the other hand, the electrification ratio in Maluku and North Maluku provinces remains relatively low at 95.08% and 88.20%, respectively—below the national average. As a strategic solution, the government has initiated the development of a Mini LNG Plant in the Lofin Field to supply natural gas to 12 gas-fired power plants (PLTMG) with a combined capacity of 300 MW and an estimated annual LNG demand of 606,818.34 m³. This study aims to determine the optimal LNG distribution model, identify the required supporting infrastructure within the supply chain, and assess the economic feasibility of the project. Optimization was conducted using the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP) method to determine the shortest shipping routes, and a combination of Integer Linear Programming and the Set Partitioning Problem (SPP) to identify the optimal vessel capacities and route configurations that minimize total costs. The results indicate that the distribution network is divided into three clusters. Clusters I and II are each served by 6,000 m³ LNG carriers, while Cluster III is served by a 2,500 m³ vessel. The optimized routes span distances ranging from 773.12 to 1,144.7 nautical miles. The total capital expenditure (CAPEX) for the project is recorded at US$ 93,675,327.438, while annual operational expenditure (OPEX) amounts to US$ 21,101,371.01. Based on the financial evaluation, with a Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) threshold of 11.68%, the project can only be considered minimally profitable if it yields an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of at least 13%. This margin between IRR and WACC is deemed sufficient to cover investment risks and ensure economically viable profits. The project is considered financially attractive and supports both energy equity and the achievement of Indonesia’s Net Zero Emission target by 2060.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Distribusi LNG, Set Partitioning Problem, Optimasi Distribusi, Analisa Keekonomian, Mini LNG Plant. LNG Distribution, Set Partitioning Problem, Distribution Optimization, Economic Analysis, Mini LNG Plant.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4910 Investments T Technology > TN Mining engineering. Metallurgy > TN880.5 Natural gas pipelines T Technology > TP Chemical technology > TP761.L5 Liquefied natural gas
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Rizki Ashari
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2025 02:19
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2025 02:19
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/127148

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