Analisis Volatilitas Harga Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Dan Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhinya Di Provinsi Kalimantan: Suatu Permodelan Menggunakan Regresi Data Panel

Wasi'i, Laela (2025) Analisis Volatilitas Harga Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Dan Faktor - Faktor Yang Mempengaruhinya Di Provinsi Kalimantan: Suatu Permodelan Menggunakan Regresi Data Panel. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri kelapa sawit merupakan sektor strategis yang memainkan peranan vital dalam perekonomian Indonesia, berkontribusi signifikan terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dan pendapatan ekspor. Namun, pasar CPO sering kali dihadapkan pada fluktuasi harga yang tinggi, menciptakan ketidakpastian bagi para pelaku industri dan petani. Penelitian ini dirancang untuk menganalisis secara mendalam pola dan tingkat volatilitas harga CPO di lima provinsi sentra produksi di Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat, Kalimantan Tengah, Kalimantan Selatan, Kaliman-tan Timur, dan Kalimantan Utara) selama periode 2020 hingga 2023. Lebih lanjut, studi ini mengidentifikasi pengaruh variabel-variabel makroekonomi, yaitu kurs Rupiah terhadap Dolar AS dan inflasi, serta variabel-variabel fundamental industri, seperti volume produksi CPO provinsi dan harga Tandan Buah Segar (TBS) terhadap pergerakan harga CPO. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan ekonometrika regresi data panel, model yang dibangun diuji me-lalui serangkaian uji formal, termasuk Uji Chow, Uji Hausman, dan Uji Lagrange Multiplier, yang pada akhirnya mengarah pada pemilihan model Random Effect Model (REM) sebagai model estimasi terbaik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model memiliki daya penjelas yang sangat kuat, dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien determinasi (R2) sebesar 86,77%. Analisis parsial mengungkapkan bahwa harga TBS memiliki pengaruh positif yang sangat kuat dan sig-nifikan terhadap harga CPO, menjadikannya faktor penentu utama. Sementara itu, variabel inflasi juga memberikan pengaruh positif yang signifikan, sedangkan produksi CPO provinsi berpengaruh negatif secara signifikan. Di sisi lain, temuan penting menunjukkan bahwa varia-bel kurs Rupiah tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan secara statistik terhadap harga CPO dalam periode yang diteliti. Temuan ini memberikan wawasan strategis bagi para pemangku kepentingan untuk merumuskan kebijakan yang efektif dan strategi manajemen risiko yang lebih tepat dalam menghadapi dinamika pasar CPO.
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The palm oil industry is a strategic sector that plays a vital role in the Indonesian economy, contributing significantly to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and export revenues. However, the CPO market is often faced with high price fluctuations, creating uncertainty for industry players and farmers. This study is designed to conduct an in-depth analysis of the patterns and levels of CPO price volatility in five major production provinces in Kalimantan (West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, and North Kalimantan) during the period from 2020 to 2023. Furthermore, this study identifies the influence of macroeconomic variables, namely the exchange rate of the Rupiah against the US Dollar and inflation, as well as fundamental industry variables, such as provincial CPO production volume and Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) prices, on CPO price movements. Using an econometric panel data regression approach, the constructed model was tested through a series of formal tests, including the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test, ultimately leading to the selection of the Random Effect Model (REM) as the best estimation model. The research results indicate that the model has a very strong explanatory power, as evidenced by a coefficient of determination (R²) value of 86.77%. Partial analysis reveals that the price of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) has a very strong and significant positive effect on the price of CPO, making it the main determining factor. Meanwhile, the inflation variable also has a significant positive effect, while provincial CPO production has a significant negative effect. On the other hand, important findings indicate that the Rupiah exchange rate variable does not have a statistically significant impact on CPO prices during the period studied. These findings provide strategic insights for stakeholders to formulate effective policies and more appropriate risk management strategies in addressing the dynamics of the CPO market.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Price Volatility, Palm Oil FFB, CPO Price, Panel Data Regression, Kalimantan, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, CPO Production, Volatilitas Harga, Harga CPO, TBS Kelapa Sawit, Regresi Data Panel, Kalimantan, Kurs Rupiah, Inflasi, Produksi CPO
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Laela Wasi'i
Date Deposited:	08 Aug 2025 08:21
Last Modified:	08 Aug 2025 08:21
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/128030

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