Anggraeni, Septian Windi (2012) Peramalan Penjualan Listrik DI PT. PLN (Persero Distribusi Jawa Timur Area Pelayanan Surabaya Barat. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Listrik adalah sumber energi yang disalurkan melalui kabel dan membantu manusia dalam memenuhi kebutuhan. Dalam memenuhi kebutuhan akan listrik, PT.PLN (PERSERO) melakukan penjualan listrik melalui dua pelanggan jakni pelanggan prabayar dan pelanggan pascabayar. Konsumsi listrik untuk pelanggan prabayar dan pascabayar semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun sehingga perlu dilakukan tindakan agar penjualan listrik dapat diantisipasi kedepannya. Metode yang digunakan untuk peramalan penjualan listrik adalah ARIMA Box Jenkins dan Double Exponential Smoothing. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data penjualan listrik bulanan dari PT. PLN (PERSERO) Distribusi Jawa Timur Area Pelayanan Surabaya Barat. Data penjualan listrik terbagi menjadi dua pelanggan yakni pelanggan prabayar dan pelanggan pascabayar. Karakteristik data penjualan listrik untuk pelanggan prabayar mengalami kenaikan dan cenderung trend sedangkan karakteristik data penjualan listrik untuk pelanggan pascabayar cenderung fluktuatif. Model peramalan penjualan listrik untuk pelanggan prabayar yakni menggunakan model double exponential smoothing sedangkan untuk pelanggan pascabayar menggunakan model ARIMA (2,1,0)
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Electricity is a source of energy that is distributed through cables and helps humans in meeting their needs. In meeting the need for electricity, PT. PLN (PERSERO) sells electricity through two customers, namely prepaid customers and postpaid customers. Electricity consumption for prepaid and postpaid customers is increasing from year to year so that actions need to be taken so that electricity sales can be anticipated in the future. The methods used for electricity sales forecasting are ARIMA Box Jenkins and Double Exponential Smoothing. The data used in this study are monthly electricity sales data from PT. PLN (PERSERO) East Java Distribution West Surabaya Service Area. Electricity sales data is divided into two customers, namely prepaid customers and postpaid customers. The characteristics of electricity sales data for prepaid customers have increased and tend to trend while the characteristics of electricity sales data for postpaid customers tend to fluctuate. The electricity sales forecasting model for prepaid customers uses the double exponential smoothing model while for postpaid customers uses the ARIMA (2,1,0) model
| Item Type: | Thesis (Diploma) |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | RSSt 519.536 Ang p-1 2012 (weding) |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Listrik, Prabayar, Pascabayar, Double Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA Box Jenkins; Electricity, Prepaid, Postpaid, Double Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA Box Jenkins |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49401-(D3) Diploma 3 |
| Depositing User: | EKO BUDI RAHARJO |
| Date Deposited: | 08 Sep 2025 03:46 |
| Last Modified: | 08 Sep 2025 03:46 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/128176 |
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