Pemilihan Model Terbaik Untuk Peramalan Yard Occupancy Ratio (Yor) Di Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) Dengan Metode Time Series

Kamal, T Ahyaul and Marpaung, Rafael A M (2025) Pemilihan Model Terbaik Untuk Peramalan Yard Occupancy Ratio (Yor) Di Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) Dengan Metode Time Series. Project Report. [s.n]. (Unpublished)

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Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis fluktuasi Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) di Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) pada periode 10 Mei hingga 4 Agustus 2025 dengan interval pengamatan enam jam. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa YOR memiliki rata-rata 48,92% dengan standar deviasi 7,46, yang mencerminkan variabilitas keterisian lapangan yang cukup tinggi. Puncak YOR terjadi pada minggu pertama hingga kedua Juni dengan nilai 62%, mendekati ambang batas aman 65% dan diduga dipengaruhi oleh peningkatan aktivitas ekspor-impor serta faktor musiman. Sebaliknya, nilai terendah sebesar 38% tercatat pada minggu keempat Mei. Pola perubahan historis mengindikasikan adanya komponen musiman dalam dinamika YOR. Dari berbagai metode peramalan yang diuji, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) menunjukkan kinerja terbaik dengan MSE 0,0153 dan MAPE 16,69%. Hasil peramalan untuk periode 2–4 Agustus 2025 menunjukkan tren penurunan utilisasi, yang dapat menjadi dasar pengambilan keputusan dalam pengelolaan kapasitas lapangan penumpukan.
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This study analyzes the fluctuation of the Yard Occupancy Ratio (YOR) at the Jakarta International Container Terminal (JICT) during the period from 10 May to 4 August 2025, with observations recorded at six-hour intervals. The results indicate that YOR exhibits considerable variability, with an average of 48.92% and a standard deviation of 7.46. The highest YOR value, reaching 62%, occurred in the first to second week of June, approaching the operational safety threshold of 65%, and is presumed to be influenced by increased export–import activities and seasonal distribution patterns. Conversely, the lowest YOR value of 38% was recorded in the fourth week of May. The observed fluctuations suggest the presence of a seasonal component in YOR dynamics. Among the forecasting methods evaluated, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) demonstrated the best performance with an MSE of 0.0153 and a MAPE of 16.69%. The forecast for 2–4 August 2025 indicates a declining utilization trend, providing insights for capacity management strategies.

Item Type:	Monograph (Project Report)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Double Exponential Smoothing, Kapasitas Peramalan, Pola Musiman,Yard Occupancy Ratio, Capacity Management, Double Exponential Smoothing, Forecasting, Seasonal Pattern, Yard Occupancy Ratio
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Rafael A. M. Marpaung
Date Deposited:	03 Dec 2025 06:22
Last Modified:	03 Dec 2025 06:22
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/128852

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