Analisis Determinan Faktor Nilai Ekspor Komponen Pesawat Terbang Indonesia

Adibrata, Aryawijaya (2026) Analisis Determinan Faktor Nilai Ekspor Komponen Pesawat Terbang Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perekonomian Indonesia masih mengalami de-industrialisasi dimana kegiatan ekspor mayoritas masih berupa bahan mineral seperti gas alam, minyak, dan batu bara. Salah satu industri teknologi Indonesia adalah industri pesawat terbang dimana hingga saat ini Indonesia masih menjadi satu-satunya negara di Asia Tenggara yang mampu memproduksi pesawat dalam negeri. Namun di sisi lain, nilai ekspor komponen pesawat terbang Indonesia berada di urutan 4 Asia Tenggara. Untuk itu dilakukan penelitian analisis determinan faktor-faktor nilai ekspor komponen pesawat terbang Indonesia menggunakan regresi data panel. Data penelitian berupa 17 negara tujuan ekspor tertinggi dengan rentang waktu dari tahun 2001 hingga 2021. Adapun variabel independen terdiri dari nilai tukar domestik, populasi, jarak, jumlah pesawat, risiko geopolitik, dan jumlah paten dari negara tujuan. Hasil regresi data panel menunjukkan variabel jumlah pesawat berpengaruh signifikan positif, sementara variabel nilai tukar dan jarak berpengaruh signifikan negatif. Adapun variabel jumlah paten signifikan positif di tingkat 10%, kemudian variabel populasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Digunakan juga machine learning dengan algoritma Random Forest dan ditemukan bahwa variabel dengan nilai importance tertinggi adalah variabel lag, diikuti dengan risiko geopolitik, jumlah pesawat, populasi, nilai tukar, jumlah paten, dan jarak. Random Forest juga digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan nilai ekspor hingga tahun 2028 dan ditemukan bahwa nilai ekspor secara umum meningkat, kecuali ke negara Perancis, Korea Selatan, Saudi Arabia, dan Australia yang mengalami penurunan nilai ekspor secara gradual.
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The Indonesian economy is still experiencing de-industrialization, with exports largely focused on mineral resources such as natural gas, oil, and coal. One of Indonesia's technology industries is the aircraft industry, where Indonesia remains the only country in Southeast Asia capable of producing aircraft domestically. However, Indonesia's aircraft component exports rank fourth in Southeast Asia. Therefore, a panel data regression analysis was conducted to analyze the determinants of Indonesia's aircraft component exports. The research data consisted of 17 top export destination countries spanning the period from 2001 to 2021. The independent variables were the domestic exchange rate, population, distance, number of aircraft, geopolitical risk, and the number of patents from the destination countries. The panel data regression results showed that the number of aircraft had a significant positive effect, while the exchange rate and distance had a significant negative effect. The number of patents had a significant positive effect at the 10% level, while the population variable had no significant effect. Machine learning with the Random Forest algorithm was also used, and it was found that the variable with the highest importance was the lag variable, followed by geopolitical risk, number of aircraft, population, exchange rate, number of patents, and distance. Random Forest was also used to forecast export values until 2028 and found that export values generally increased, except to France, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Australia which experienced a gradual decline in export values.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ekspor, Komponen Pesawat Terbang, Regresi Data Panel===================================================================================================================Export, Aircraft Component, Panel Data Regression
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis. H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Aryawijaya Adibrata
Date Deposited:	13 Jan 2026 04:05
Last Modified:	13 Jan 2026 04:05
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129535

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