Firmanjaya, I Made Bayu Sukma (2025) Analisis Investasi Peningkatan Kapasitas Produced Water Treatment System (PWTS) Pada Fasilitas Pengolahan Gas. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Industri minyak dan gas memegang peran strategis dalam mendukung ketahanan energi nasional. Seiring dengan bertambahnya umur lapangan produksi, terjadi peningkatan volume produced water (air terproduksi) yang kerap melebihi kapasitas desain Produced Water Treatment System (PWTS) di fasilitas PT XYZ. Kondisi ini mengganggu kelancaran operasi dan berpotensi menimbulkan bahaya. Penelitian ini mengevaluasi investasi peningkatan kapasitas PWTS dari faktor teknis dan faktor ekonomi. Technical Risk Assessment menggunakan Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) yang disimulasikan dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo dan Risk Matrix untuk menilai risiko kegagalan peralatan akibat keterbatasan kapasitas. Economic Risk Assessment menggunakan Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan investasi. Integrasi kedua metode tersebut menyimpulkan bahwa kapasitas optimum PWTS adalah 6000 BWPD, menghasilkan Net Present Value (NPV) USD 84.94 Jt, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 80,88%, Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) 16.59, dan Payback Period (PP) selama 24 bulan. Analisis Sensitivitas menunjukan proyek rentan terhadap fluktuasi produksi dengan batas toleransi penurunan produksi hingga -1.5% per hari, namun memiliki ketahanan yang lebih stabil terhadap peningkatan biaya operasional (OPEX) hingga 45%. Analisis berbasis teknis, ekonomi, dan sensitivitas ini merupakan komponen kunci dari Risk Management dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi.
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The oil and gas sector remains a strategic pillar in maintaining national energy supply reliability. As production fields mature, the escalating volume of produced water frequently exceeds the original design capacity of the Produced Water Treatment System (PWTS) at PT XYZ’s facilities. This capacity constraint disrupts operational continuity and poses significant risks to environmental compliance and asset integrity. This research evaluates the investment feasibility for PWTS capacity expansion by integrating technical and economic frameworks. Technical Risk Assessment is conducted using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), facilitated by Monte Carlo Simulation to account for expert judgment uncertainties, and a Risk Matrix to quantify the impact of equipment failure. Economic Risk Assessment utilizes Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) to evaluate investment viability. The integration of these methodologies concludes that a PWTS capacity of 6,000 BWPD is the optimal scenario, yielding a Net Present Value (NPV) of USD 84.94 Million, an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 80.88%, a Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) of 16.59, and a Payback Period (PP) of 24 months. Sensitivity Analysis further identifies a maximum tolerance for production decline at -1.5% per day, while demonstrating high resilience against operational expenditure (OPEX) increases up to 45%. This multi-dimensional analysis provides a comprehensive risk management framework to support strategic investment decision-making.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Produced Water, Produced Water Treatment System (PWTS), Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Simulasi Monte Carlo, Risk Matrix, Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), Analisis Sensitivitas |
| Subjects: | T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | I Made Bayu Sukma Firmanjaya |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Jan 2026 02:55 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Jan 2026 02:55 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/129584 |
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