Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak PErubahan Iklim pada Pengelolaan Distribusi Tenaga Listrik di Wilayah Kerja PT PLN (Persero) UID Banten

Abyati, Inez Carissa (2026) Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak PErubahan Iklim pada Pengelolaan Distribusi Tenaga Listrik di Wilayah Kerja PT PLN (Persero) UID Banten. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 6014231070-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (7MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Sistem distribusi tenaga listrik di wilayah kerja PT PLN (Persero) Unit Induk Distribusi Banten semakin rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim, khususnya peningkatan frekuensi dan intensitas kejadian banjir. Data historis menunjukkan bahwa gangguan kelistrikan akibat force majeure berkontribusi sebesar 7,5% terhadap total Energy Not Served (ENS) dalam empat tahun terakhir. Pada tahun 2023 dan 2024, tercatat masing-masing sembilan kejadian pemadaman akibat banjir dengan cakupan wilayah terdampak yang semakin meluas. Gangguan tersebut menunjukkan pola musiman yang jelas, terutama terjadi pada periode Januari–Maret dan November–Desember, seiring dengan meningkatnya kejadian curah hujan ekstrem di wilayah Banten. Mengingat wilayah ini berkontribusi sekitar 10% terhadap pendapatan tenaga listrik nasional, risiko banjir menjadi ancaman serius terhadap keandalan sistem distribusi dan menuntut penerapan strategi adaptasi yang efektif. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim terhadap sistem distribusi tenaga listrik di Provinsi Banten serta merumuskan strategi adaptasi prioritas guna meningkatkan ketahanan infrastruktur. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dan kualitatif secara terintegrasi. Analisis kuantitatif meliputi kajian curah hujan historis periode 2014–2024, proyeksi curah hujan menggunakan Google Earth Engine dengan skenario SSP 2–4.5 dan SSP 5–8.5 berbasis CMIP6, pemetaan risiko banjir menggunakan analisis spasial Geographic Information System (GIS), serta penilaian dampak teknis, lingkungan, dan ekonomi. Analisis kualitatif dilakukan melalui pendekatan SWOT untuk mengidentifikasi posisi strategis organisasi dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) untuk menentukan prioritas strategi adaptasi berdasarkan penilaian multi-kriteria dari para pemangku kepentingan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa risiko banjir di wilayah Banten dipengaruhi oleh faktor topografi, jenis tanah, tata guna lahan, dan curah hujan. Luasan wilayah dengan tingkat risiko banjir sangat tinggi mencapai 145.016,6 ha (SSP 2–4.5 tahun 2030) dan 144.990,5 ha (SSP 5–8.5 tahun 2030), kemudian menurun menjadi 38.608,9 ha dan 39.537,1 ha masing-masing pada tahun 2050. Pada zona sangat rawan, jumlah gardu distribusi yang terdampak berkisar antara 20–27 unit pada berbagai skenario. Nilai ENS mencapai maksimum 7.020 kWh, yang berdampak pada kerugian pendapatan hingga Rp10,14 juta, sementara total kerugian finansial termasuk biaya perbaikan gardu berada pada kisaran Rp3,20–4,32 miliar. Dari aspek lingkungan, tambahan emisi akibat proses black start diperkirakan sebesar 1,97 ton CO₂. Berdasarkan hasil analisis SWOT–AHP, strategi adaptasi prioritas adalah peninggian dan penguatan fisik infrastruktur distribusi, diikuti oleh penerapan sistem monitoring dan peringatan dini berbasis iklim, serta penguatan tata kelola keselamatan dan kolaborasi sosial.
=====================================================================================================================================
The electricity distribution system in the service area of PT PLN (Persero) Unit Induk Distribusi Banten is increasingly exposed to climate change impacts, particularly the rising frequency and intensity of flood events. Historical records show that force majeure–related outages accounted for 7.5% of total Energy Not Served (ENS) over the past four years. In both 2023 and 2024, nine flood-induced outage events were recorded annually, with progressively wider affected areas. These disruptions exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, occurring mainly during January–March and November–December, corresponding to periods of extreme rainfall in Banten. Given that this region contributes approximately 10% of national electricity revenue, flood-related risks pose a serious threat to system reliability and necessitate robust adaptation strategies. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the electricity distribution system in Banten and to formulate priority adaptation strategies to enhance infrastructure resilience. An integrated quantitative–qualitative approach was employed. Quantitative analysis included historical rainfall assessment (2014–2024), rainfall projections using Google Earth Engine under SSP 2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 scenarios based on CMIP6, flood risk mapping using Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis, and evaluation of technical, environmental, and economic impacts. Qualitative analysis comprised SWOT analysis to identify the strategic position of the organization and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to prioritize adaptation strategies based on multi-criteria stakeholder assessments. The results indicate that flood risk in Banten is primarily influenced by topography, soil type, land use, and rainfall. Areas classified as very highly flood-prone reach 145,016.6 ha (SSP 2–4.5, 2030) and 144,990.5 ha (SSP 5–8.5, 2030), decreasing to 38,608.9 ha and 39,537.1 ha, respectively, by 2050. In very high-risk zones, affected substations range from 20 to 27 units across scenarios. ENS values reach up to 7,020 kWh, resulting in direct revenue losses of up to IDR 10.14 million, while total financial losses including substation repair costs amount to IDR 3.20–4.32 billion. Additional emissions from black start operations are estimated at 1.97 tons of CO₂. Based on the SWOT–AHP results, the highest-priority adaptation strategy is the elevation and physical reinforcement of distribution infrastructure, followed by integrated climate-based monitoring and early warning systems, and strengthened safety governance and social collaboration.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Kata kunci: perubahan iklim, distribusi tenaga listrik, risiko banjir, strategi adaptasi, SWOT, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Energy Not Served. Keywords: climate change, electricity distribution, flood risk, adaptation strategy, SWOT, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Energy Not Served.
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Inez Carissa Abyati
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2026 07:40
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2026 07:40
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130485

Actions (login required)

View Item