Kajian Kerentanan Perubahan Iklim Pada Unit Pembangkitan Muara Karang

Rahmanissa, Aulia (2026) Kajian Kerentanan Perubahan Iklim Pada Unit Pembangkitan Muara Karang. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Unit Pembangkitan Muara Karang di Jakarta Utara berada di kawasan pesisir yang rentan terhadap perubahan iklim, terutama peningkatan suhu udara ambien, kenaikan suhu permukaan laut, dan kenaikan muka air laut. Dampak tersebut telah memengaruhi kinerja operasional pembangkit, antara lain penurunan efisiensi turbin gas dan uap, peningkatan beban sistem pendingin, serta munculnya intrusi air laut di area pembangkit. Kondisi ini berpotensi mengganggu keandalan pasokan listrik ke wilayah strategis DKI Jakarta. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan kajian kerentanan iklim yang komprehensif untuk menilai tingkat risiko serta implikasi teknis dan finansial akibat perubahan iklim terhadap kinerja pembangkit. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) yang mencakup komponen exposure, sensitivity, dan adaptive capacity. Analisis paparan dilakukan menggunakan data historis suhu udara ambien, suhu permukaan laut, dan kenaikan muka air laut periode 1994–2024 serta proyeksi iklim CMIP6 periode 2026–2060 pada skenario SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, dan SSP5-8.5. Sensitivitas dinilai berdasarkan penurunan kapasitas pembangkit akibat kenaikan suhu udara dan suhu air laut, peningkatan konsumsi bahan bakar, serta risiko intrusi air laut. Kapasitas adaptif dievaluasi melalui penilaian terhadap langkah adaptasi dan mitigasi perubahan iklim yang telah diterapkan. Seluruh indikator dinormalisasi dan dibobotkan untuk memperoleh nilai indeks kerentanan berdasarkan IPCC 2014, serta digunakan untuk mengestimasi kerugian finansial akibat kehilangan produksi dan peningkatan biaya bahan bakar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan peningkatan paparan iklim yang signifikan setelah tahun 2010, dengan kategori paparan meningkat dari rendah–sedang menjadi tinggi. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan suhu udara menyebabkan derating turbin gas sebesar 4,16% pada tahun 2030 dan 4,24% pada tahun 2050, sementara kenaikan suhu air laut menurunkan output turbin uap hingga 0,261% dan 0,248%. Risiko intrusi air laut berada pada kategori sangat tinggi, terutama pada proyeksi tahun 2050. Meskipun kapasitas adaptif unit pembangkitan tergolong tinggi, tingkat kerentanan meningkat dari kategori rendah pada tahun 2030 menjadi kategori sedang pada tahun 2050. Dari aspek finansial, kehilangan produksi listrik akibat kenaikan suhu ambien diperkirakan mencapai 244,71 GWh pada tahun 2030 dengan estimasi kerugian sekitar Rp337,09 miliar dan meningkat pada tahun 2050. Temuan ini menegaskan perlunya strategi adaptasi bertahap untuk meningkatkan ketahanan operasional Unit Pembangkitan Muara Karang terhadap risiko perubahan iklim.
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The Muara Karang Power Generation Unit, located in North Jakarta, is situated in a coastal area that is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, particularly increases in ambient air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level rise. These impacts have affected power plant operations, including reductions in gas and steam turbine efficiency, increased cooling system loads, and the occurrence of seawater intrusion within the plant area. Such conditions pose risks to the reliability of electricity supply for the strategic region of Jakarta. Therefore, a comprehensive climate vulnerability assessment is required to evaluate the level of risk and the associated technical and financial implications of climate change on power plant performance. This study applies the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) framework, which consists of three main components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Climate exposure is analyzed using historical data on ambient air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level rise for the period 1994–2024, as well as CMIP6 climate projections for 2026–2060 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Sensitivity is assessed based on reductions in power generation capacity due to rising air and sea surface temperatures, increased fuel consumption, and vulnerability to seawater intrusion. Adaptive capacity is evaluated through an assessment of existing climate adaptation and mitigation measures implemented at the power plant. All indicators are normalized and weighted to derive the vulnerability index using the IPCC 2014 formulation, followed by an estimation of financial losses associated with production losses and increased fuel costs. The results indicate a significant increase in climate exposure after 2010, with exposure levels rising from low–moderate to high. Sensitivity analysis shows that increased ambient air temperature leads to gas turbine derating of 4.16% in 2030 and 4.24% in 2050, while rising sea surface temperature reduces steam turbine output by up to 0.261% and 0.248%, respectively. The risk of seawater intrusion is classified as very high, particularly in the 2050 projection. Although the adaptive capacity of the power plant is categorized as high, overall climate vulnerability increases from low in 2030 to moderate in 2050. From a financial perspective, electricity production losses due to rising ambient temperature are estimated at 244.71 GWh in 2030, corresponding to losses of approximately IDR 337.09 billion, with higher losses projected for 2050. These findings highlight the need for phased adaptation strategies to enhance the operational resilience of the Muara Karang Power Generation Unit to climate change risks.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	perubahan iklim, kerentanan, pembangkit, climate change, vulnerability, power generation
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Aulia Rahmanissa
Date Deposited:	27 Jan 2026 02:20
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2026 02:20
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130492

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