Model Pembagian Risiko Finansial Pada Proyek KPBU Sektor Jalan Tol

Hakim, Amalia Azizah (2026) Model Pembagian Risiko Finansial Pada Proyek KPBU Sektor Jalan Tol. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Proyek Kerja Sama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha (KPBU) sektor jalan tol merupakan skema penyediaan infrastruktur strategis dengan kompleksitas tinggi, khususnya pada aspek finansial yang mempengaruhi keberlanjutan proyek. Risiko finansial yang tidak dikelola dan dialokasikan secara tepat dapat menimbulkan ketidakpastian pembiayaan, pelaksanaan proyek, serta pengembalian investasi. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan identifikasi dan pembagian risiko finansial yang sistematis dalam proyek KPBU sektor jalan tol. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi risiko finansial, menilai tingkat kemungkinan terjadinya risiko, serta menganalisis pembagian risiko finansial antara pemerintah dan badan usaha. Pendekatan penelitian yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif dengan pengumpulan data melalui kuesioner kepada 43 responden yang memiliki pengalaman dalam proyek KPBU jalan tol. Penilaian tingkat kemungkinan kejadian risiko dilakukan menggunakan metode probabilitas empiris, sedangkan analisis pembagian risiko dilakukan dengan metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Hasil penelitian mengidentifikasi 15 variabel risiko finansial, di mana 9 variabel dinilai signifikan dan dilanjutkan ke tahap permodelan serta analisis pembagian risiko, sementara 6 variabel lainnya memiliki tingkat risiko sangat rendah sehingga tidak dimodelkan lebih lanjut, namun tetap dicatat sebagai temuan penelitian. Analisis terhadap sembilan model risiko menunjukkan bahwa pembagian risiko finansial pada proyek KPBU jalan tol bersifat kontekstual. Badan usaha lebih tepat menanggung risiko yang berkaitan dengan mekanisme pasar dan pembiayaan, pemerintah lebih optimal menanggung risiko terkait kepastian kebijakan dan dukungan awal proyek, sedangkan risiko dengan tingkat pengendalian yang seimbang lebih efektif dikelola secara bersama, sesuai prinsip risk allocation to the party best able to manage the risk.
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Public–Private Partnership (PPP) toll road projects represent a strategic infrastructure delivery scheme with a high level of complexity, particularly in the financial aspect, which significantly affects project sustainability. Financial risks that are not properly managed and allocated may create uncertainty in project financing, implementation, and investment returns. Therefore, a systematic identification and allocation of financial risks is required in PPP toll road projects. This study aims to identify financial risks, assess their likelihood of occurrence, and analyze the allocation of financial risks between the government and the private sector. A quantitative research approach was adopted, with data collected through questionnaires distributed to 43 respondents experienced in PPP toll road projects. The likelihood of risk occurrence was evaluated using an empirical probability method, while risk allocation analysis was conducted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results identify 15 financial risk variables, of which 9 were considered significant and further analyzed through risk allocation modeling, while the remaining 6 variables were classified as very low-risk and therefore excluded from further modeling, but still recorded as important research findings. Analysis of the nine financial risk models indicates that financial risk allocation in PPP toll road projects is contextual and depends on the characteristics of each risk. The private sector is more suitable to bear risks related to market mechanisms and financing, while the government is better positioned to manage risks associated with policy certainty and initial project support. Risks with relatively balanced control are more effectively shared between both parties, reflecting the principle of risk allocation to the party best able to manage the risk.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Analytical Hierarchy Process, Pembagian Risiko, Proyek Jalan Tol, Risiko Finansial.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TF Railroad engineering and operation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Amalia Azizah Hakim
Date Deposited:	29 Jan 2026 01:06
Last Modified:	29 Jan 2026 01:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/130836

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