Analisis Geospasial Historis Intensitas Siklon Tropis Dan Curah Hujan Di Wilayah Kabupaten Alor

Blegur, Thomas Y. Blegur (2026) Analisis Geospasial Historis Intensitas Siklon Tropis Dan Curah Hujan Di Wilayah Kabupaten Alor. Masters thesis, Instiut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Wilayah Kabupaten Alor yang terletak di selatan ekuator berada dalam pengaruh tidak langsung cekungan siklon tropis Samudra Hindia dan wilayah Australia, sehingga rentan terhadap hujan ekstrem dan cuaca berbahaya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji karakteristik spasial dan temporal siklon tropis di sekitar Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT), mengidentifikasi kecenderungan perubahannya, serta mengkuantifikasi kontribusi curah hujan yang dipicu oleh siklon tropis terhadap curah hujan bulanan dan tahunan di Kabupaten Alor. Data siklon tropis diperoleh dari Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Australia yang mencakup lintasan, waktu hidup, dan kecepatan angin maksimum selama periode 1996–2024. Data curah hujan menggunakan produk satelit CHIRPS resolusi harian. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan geospasial dan statistik yang mengintegrasikan statistik deskriptif, pemetaan spasial, regresi Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), dan pemulusan Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa siklon tropis di wilayah selatan NTT bersifat musiman dengan puncak kejadian pada periode November hingga April. Sebagian besar kejadian berada pada kategori depresi tropis dan badai tropis, namun sejumlah siklon kuat terjadi secara episodik dan memberikan dampak hidrometeorologis yang signifikan. Distribusi kecepatan angin maksimum bersifat right-skewed dan analisis OLS–LOESS mengindikasikan peningkatan variabilitas dan potensi intensitas siklon tropis sepanjang periode pengamatan. Curah hujan yang dipicu oleh siklon tropis memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap total curah hujan di Kabupaten Alor, terutama pada musim hujan. Pada bulan-bulan tertentu, hujan yang terkait dengan siklon tropis menyumbang porsi besar dari total curah hujan bulanan dan berperan dominan dalam pembentukan kejadian hujan ekstrem. Secara spasial, kontribusi tersebut bervariasi dan dipengaruhi oleh kedekatan terhadap lintasan siklon serta kondisi topografi. Hasil ini menegaskan bahwa siklon tropis merupakan faktor utama yang mengendalikan variabilitas dan ekstrem curah hujan di Kabupaten Alor, sehingga informasi siklon perlu diintegrasikan dalam sistem peringatan dini dan perencanaan mitigasi bencana di wilayah Nusa Tenggara Timur.

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Alor Regency, located south of the equator, is under the indirect influence of the tropical cyclone basins of the southern Indian Ocean and the Australian region, making it highly vulnerable to extreme rainfall and hazardous weather. This study aims to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of tropical cyclones around East Nusa Tenggara (NTT), identify their long-term variability, and quantify the contribution of cyclone-induced rainfall to monthly and annual rainfall in Alor Regency. Tropical cyclone data were obtained from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Australia, including track, lifetime, and maximum wind speed for the period 1996–2024. Rainfall data were derived from daily CHIRPS satellite products. The analysis employed an integrated geospatial and statistical approach, including descriptive statistics, spatial mapping, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Locally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing (LOESS). The results show that tropical cyclones in southern NTT exhibit strong seasonality, with peak occurrences from November to April. Most events are classified as tropical depressions and tropical storms; however, several intense cyclones occur episodically and produce substantial hydrometeorological impacts. The distribution of maximum wind speed is right-skewed, and OLS–LOESS analysis indicates increasing variability and potential intensification of tropical cyclones over the study period. Cyclone-induced rainfall contributes significantly to total rainfall in Alor Regency, particularly during the rainy season. In several months, rainfall associated with tropical cyclones accounts for a large proportion of monthly rainfall and plays a dominant role in generating extreme precipitation events. Spatially, this contribution varies according to proximity to cyclone tracks and local topographic conditions. These findings confirm that tropical cyclones are a key driver of rainfall variability and extremes in Alor Regency. Therefore, tropical cyclone information should be integrated into early warning systems and disaster risk management strategies in East Nusa Tenggara.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Siklon Tropis, CHIRPS, Analisis Geospasial, Curah Hujan, Kabupaten Alor, Tropical Cyclone, CHIRPS, Geospatial Analysis, Rainfall, Alor Regency
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Thomas Y. Blegur
Date Deposited:	29 Jan 2026 08:11
Last Modified:	29 Jan 2026 08:11
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131144

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