Pemodelan Penentuan Tarif Jalan Tol Skema Kerja Sama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha Untuk Menentukan Equitable Tarif dengan Sistem Dinamis

Wicaksono, Anggito Adji (2026) Pemodelan Penentuan Tarif Jalan Tol Skema Kerja Sama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha Untuk Menentukan Equitable Tarif dengan Sistem Dinamis. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Proyek Jalan Tol Solo - Yogyakarta - YIA merupakan salah satu Proyek Strategis Nasional yang dikembangkan melalui skema Kerja Sama Pemerintah dan Badan Usaha (KPBU) dengan model Build - Operate - Transfer (BOT). Dalam skema ini, tarif tol berfungsi sebagai instrumen utama karena menjadi sumber pengembalian investasi sekaligus memengaruhi keputusan pengguna jalan. Namun, sebagian besar kajian penetapan tarif masih didominasi pendekatan statis berbasis biaya atau optimasi jangka pendek, serta cenderung memisahkan analisis kelayakan finansial dari dimensi keterjangkauan pengguna. Sementara itu, studi dynamic toll pricing internasional umumnya berfokus pada optimasi real-time dan prediksi jangka pendek, tanpa mengintegrasikan mekanisme umpan balik jangka panjang antara tarif, lalu lintas, pendapatan, dan keberlanjutan proyek dalam konteks KPBU. Oleh karena itu, terdapat research gap berupa ketiadaan model yang secara simultan menangkap interaksi nonlinier, endogen, dan berjangka panjang antara tarif tol, respons lalu lintas, dan kinerja finansial proyek, khususnya pada jalan tol baru yang belum memiliki data historis. Penelitian ini bertujuan membangun model penyesuaian tarif tol yang equitable berbasis sistem dinamis untuk mensimulasikan keterkaitan antara tarif, Lalu Lintas Harian Rata-rata (LHR), pendapatan tol, dan arus kas proyek sepanjang masa konsesi. Pendekatan sistem dinamis diterapkan melalui tahapan problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis, formulation of simulation model, testing, serta policy design and evaluation. Analisis skenario dilakukan dengan memvariasikan koefisien tarif guna menangkap mekanisme umpan balik (feedback loop) antara perubahan tarif, respons lalu lintas, dan kinerja finansial proyek. Ability to Pay (ATP) diintegrasikan sebagai variabel perilaku yang memengaruhi LHR sehingga dimensi keterjangkauan menjadi bagian dari dinamika permintaan. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa LHR merupakan variabel paling dominan dalam menentukan kelayakan finansial. Pada skenario dasar (tarif 6%), proyek menghasilkan NPV positif sebesar Rp38,59 triliun. Penurunan tarif hingga 2% meningkatkan LHR dan menjaga stabilitas NPV, sedangkan kenaikan tarif di atas 8% menurunkan kelayakan hingga menghasilkan NPV negatif. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa hubungan tarif dan kinerja finansial bersifat nonlinier dan endogen, serta menunjukkan bahwa skenario penurunan tarif 2% merupakan opsi paling equitable dan berkelanjutan.
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The Solo - Yogyakarta - YIA Toll Road Project is one of Indonesia’s National Strategic Projects developed under a Public - Private Partnership (PPP) scheme using the Build - Operate - Transfer (BOT) model. In this scheme, toll tariffs function as a key policy instrument, serving as the main source of private investment recovery while also influencing users’ route choices. However, most existing toll tariff studies are still dominated by static, cost-based approaches or short-term optimization, and tend to separate financial feasibility analysis from user affordability considerations. Meanwhile, international dynamic toll pricing studies mainly focus on real-time optimization and short-term traffic prediction, without integrating long-term feedback mechanisms among tariffs, traffic, revenue, and project sustainability within the PPP context. Consequently, a significant research gap remains in the absence of a model that simultaneously captures the nonlinear, endogenous, and long-term interactions between toll tariffs, traffic responses, and financial performance, particularly for new toll road projects with limited historical data. This study aims to develop an equitable toll tariff adjustment model based on a system dynamics approach to simulate the interrelationships among toll tariffs, Average Daily Traffic (ADT), toll revenue, and project cash flows over the concession period. The system dynamics methodology is implemented through the stages of problem articulation, dynamic hypothesis formulation, simulation model development, testing, and policy design and evaluation. Scenario analysis is conducted by varying tariff coefficients to capture feedback loops between tariff changes, traffic responses, and financial performance. Ability to Pay (ATP) is explicitly incorporated as a behavioral variable influencing ADT, so that user affordability becomes an integral part of demand dynamics rather than being treated separately from financial feasibility.The results indicate that ADT is the most dominant variable in determining project financial viability. Under the baseline scenario with a 6% tariff coefficient, the project generates a positive Net Present Value (NPV) of IDR 38.59 trillion. A tariff reduction of up to 2% increases ADT and maintains a stable positive NPV, whereas tariff increases above 8% significantly reduce financial feasibility and result in negative NPV. These findings confirm that the relationship between tariffs and financial performance is nonlinear and endogenous, and demonstrate that a 2% tariff reduction scenario represents the most equitable and financially sustainable policy option.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Jalan Tol Solo - YIA, Tarif Tol, LHR, Sistem Dinamis, KPBU, Penyesuaian tarif berkeadilan, Solo - YIA Toll Road, Toll Tariff, ADT, System Dynamics, PPP, Equitable Tariff Adjustment
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Civil Engineering > 22101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Anggito Adji Wicaksono
Date Deposited:	02 Feb 2026 08:15
Last Modified:	02 Feb 2026 08:17
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131637

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