Model Stokastik Rantai Pasok Petrochemical Indonesia Dalam Upaya Mendukung Pengurangan Produk Kimia Impor

Maulana, Garda (2026) Model Stokastik Rantai Pasok Petrochemical Indonesia Dalam Upaya Mendukung Pengurangan Produk Kimia Impor. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tingginya ketergantungan impor bahan baku petrokimia Indonesia (>40%) menciptakan defisit neraca perdagangan dan kerentanan terhadap volatilitas harga global. Penelitian ini bertujuan merancang strategi rantai pasok optimal untuk mendukung pengurangan impor menggunakan model Two-Stage Stochastic Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Model ini mengintegrasikan keputusan strategis investasi kapasitas dan kontrak logistik dengan keputusan operasional di bawah ketidakpastian permintaan dan harga energi selama horizon 60 bulan. Hasil optimasi menunjukkan bahwa mekanisme pasar tanpa intervensi cenderung mempertahankan status net-importer. Kebijakan Tarif 30% dan Subsidi CAPEX 50% terbukti efektif memicu ekspansi kapasitas kilang domestik sebesar 2,79 juta ton/tahun, namun menghasilkan biaya sistem yang tinggi. Sebaliknya, kebijakan Subsidi OPEX USD 150/ton teridentifikasi sebagai strategi paling robust dan efisien, mampu menekan pangsa impor hingga level 11% sekaligus menjaga stabilitas biaya operasional saat terjadi guncangan harga. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa keberhasilan substitusi impor mutlak memerlukan transformasi logistik dari model spot internasional menjadi armada domestik terintegrasi (Time Charter / Bareboat Charter ) guna menjamin kepastian pasokan antar-wilayah.
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The Indonesian petrochemical industry faces high dependency on raw material imports (>40%), leading to trade deficits and vulnerability to global price volatility. This study aims to design an optimal supply chain strategy to support import reduction by developing a Two-Stage Stochastic Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model. The model integrates strategic investment and logistics decisions with operational planning under demand and energy price uncertainty over a 60-month horizon. Optimization results indicate that market mechanisms without intervention tend to maintain net-importer status. While the 30% Tariff and 50% CAPEX Subsidy policies effectively trigger domestic capacity expansion of 2.79 million tons/year, they result in high system costs. Conversely, the OPEX Subsidy of USD 150/ton is identified as the most robust and cost-efficient strategy, capable of reducing import share to 11% while maintaining cost stability during price shocks. The study concludes that successful import substitution requires a logistic transformation from international spot models to integrated domestic fleets (Time Charter) to ensure supply security across regions.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Stochastic Programming, Rantai Pasok Petrokimia, Substitusi Impor, Optimasi Logistik, Analisis Kebijakan Stochastic Programming, Petrochemical Supply Chain, Import Substitution, Logistics Optimization, Policy Analysis
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.6 Operations research--Mathematics. Goal programming T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.74 Linear programming
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Transportation Engineering > 21207-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Garda Maulana
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2026 01:33
Last Modified:	03 Feb 2026 01:33
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/131828

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