Rohmatulillah, Oktaviana Nur (2026) Pemodelan Geographically Weighted Panel Regression Pada Dampak Kejadian Bencana Alam Terhadap Rasio Gini Di Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Indonesia merupakan negara dengan risiko bencana alam yang tinggi, dimana periode 2015–2024, ribuan peristiwa bencana tercatat dengan dampak besar terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan dan kemiskinan. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh risiko bencana, aspek sosial, dan ekonomi terhadap rasio Gini menggunakan metode Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa variabel indeks risiko bencana, kepadatan penduduk, distribusi PDRB ADHB menurut pengeluaran rumah tangga, serta persentase APBD biaya tak terduga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ketimpangan. GWPR terbukti lebih baik dibandingkan model Random Effect dengan nilai kebaikan model 93,86% dan AIC rendah, serta menghasilkan 11 kelompok wilayah berdasarkan variabel signifikan. Berdasarkan ringkasan hasil tersebut, Provinsi yang dipengaruhi risiko bencana seperti Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Barat, Riau, Jawa Timur, Kalimantan Selatan, dan Papua Barat perlu memperkuat mitigasi bencana dan mengintegrasikan penanggulangan dengan kebijakan pemerataan. DKI Jakarta dan Sulawesi Barat yang dipengaruhi risiko bencana dan distribusi PDRB perlu mengurangi ketimpangan antarwilayah dengan pemerataan pembangunan serta perlindungan sosial. Lampung, Sulawesi Tenggara, dan Maluku perlu memperkuat pembangunan pedesaan dan akses di daerah terpencil. Jawa Tengah, DI Yogyakarta, dan Maluku Utara perlu meningkatkan alokasi anggaran darurat sesuai kepadatan. Kalimantan Utara sebagai daerah pemekaran perlu kebijakan pemerataan pembangunan antar kabupaten. Banten perlu memperkuat kapasitas anggaran darurat dan koordinasi dengan DKI Jakarta. Sementara itu, Kepulauan Bangka Belitung memerlukan kebijakan terpadu yang menggabungkan mitigasi bencana, pemerataan kependudukan, distribusi ekonomi, dan penguatan APBD tak terduga.
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Indonesia is a country with a high risk of natural disaster. In the period 2015–2024, thousands of disaster events were recorded with a major impact on income inequality and poverty. This study analyzes the influence of disaster risk, social aspects, and economic factors on the Gini ratio using the Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) method. The results show that the disaster risk index variable, population density, distribution of ADHB GRDP according to household expenditure, and the percentage of unexpected costs in the regional budget have a significant effect on inequality. GWPR proved to be better than the Random Effect model with a model goodness value of 93.86% and low AIC, and produced 11 regional groups based on significant variables. Based on these results, local governments are advised to establish strategic policies in accordance with regional characteristics so that the impact of disasters, economic dynamics, and population do not exacerbate inequality. Provinces affected by disaster risks, such as North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, East Java, South Kalimantan, and West Papua, need to strengthen disaster mitigation and integrate mitigation with equity policies. DKI Jakarta and West Sulawesi, which are affected by disaster risk and GRDP distribution, need to reduce interregional inequality through equitable development and social protection. Lampung, Southeast Sulawesi, and Maluku need to strengthen rural development and access in remote areas. Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, and North Maluku need to increase emergency budget allocations in accordance with population density. North Kalimantan, as a newly established region, needs policies to ensure equitable development across districts. Banten needs to strengthen its emergency budget capacity and coordination with DKI Jakarta. Meanwhile, the Bangka Belitung Islands require integrated policies that combine disaster mitigation, equitable population distribution, economic distribution, and strengthening of the unexpected regional budget.
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