Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Sosial Ekonomi Terhadap IPM dan PDRB Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Simultan Data Panel

Antika, Arum (2026) Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Sosial Ekonomi Terhadap IPM dan PDRB Provinsi di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Simultan Data Panel. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perekonomian dan pembangunan manusia merupakan dua aspek kesejahteraan yang saling berkaitan, namun perkembangannya di Indonesia masih belum merata. Berdasarkan teori pertumbuhan endogen, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia (IPM) berperan penting dalam mendorong perekonomian yang diukur menggunakan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB). IPM dan PDRB dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor sosial dan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh faktor sosial ekonomi terhadap IPM dan PDRB menggunakan model simultan data panel, dengan IPM dan PDRB sebagai variabel endogen, serta Dana Bantuan Operasional Sekolah (BOS), anggaran dekonsentrasi kementerian kesehatan, Angka Harapan Hidup (AHH), Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK), jumlah industri kecil, dan panjang jalan provinsi sebagai variabel eksogen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa selama tahun 2022–2024, IPM dan PDRB provinsi di Indonesia menunjukkan tren peningkatan, namun masih terdapat ketimpangan antar provinsi. Provinsi D.I. Yogyakarta secara konsisten memiliki IPM tertinggi, sementara Papua Barat berada pada tingkat IPM terendah. Sumatera Utara mencatat PDRB tertinggi, sedangkan Gorontalo memiliki PDRB terendah. Selain itu, faktor sosial dan ekonomi seperti BOS, anggaran dekonsentrasi kesehatan, AHH, TPAK, jumlah industri kecil, dan panjang jalan provinsi menunjukkan adanya variasi distribusi antar wilayah. Hasil estimasi model simultan data panel menunjukkan adanya hubungan timbal balik antara IPM dan PDRB dengan model terbaik adalah Random Effect Model (REM). Pada persamaan IPM, variabel PDRB, AHH, dan TPAK berpengaruh positif, sedangkan anggaran dekonsentrasi kesehatan berpengaruh negatif terhadap IPM. Pada persamaan PDRB, variabel IPM, BOS, anggaran dekonsentrasi kesehatan, dan panjang jalan provinsi berpengaruh positif terhadap PDRB. Secara keseluruhan, model mampu menjelaskan IPM dan PDRB masing-masing sebesar 79,93% dan 84,44%.
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Economic growth and human development are two interrelated aspects of welfare; however, their development in Indonesia remains uneven. Based on endogenous growth theory, the Human Development Index (HDI) plays a crucial role in promoting economic growth, which is measured by Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). Both HDI and GRDP are influenced by various social and economic factors. Therefore, this study analyzes the effects of socioeconomic factors on HDI and GRDP using a simultaneous panel data model, with HDI and GRDP as endogenous variables, and School Operational Assistance (BOS), the deconcentration budget of the Ministry of Health, life expectancy (LE), labor force participation rate (LFPR), the number of small-scale industries, and the length of provincial roads as exogenous variables. The results show that during the period 2022–2024, provincial HDI and GRDP in Indonesia exhibited an increasing trend, although disparities among provinces persisted. The Special Region of Yogyakarta consistently recorded the highest HDI, while West Papua had the lowest HDI. North Sumatra recorded the highest GRDP, whereas Gorontalo had the lowest GRDP. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as BOS, the health deconcentration budget, LE, LFPR, the number of small-scale industries, and provincial road length showed variations in their distribution across regions. The estimation results of the simultaneous panel data model indicate a reciprocal relationship between HDI and GRDP, with the Random Effects Model (REM) identified as the best-fitting model. In the HDI equation, GRDP, LE, and LFPR have a positive effect, while the health deconcentration budget has a negative effect on HDI. In the GRDP equation, HDI, BOS, the health deconcentration budget, and provincial road length positively affect GRDP. Overall, the model explains 79.93% of the variation in HDI and 84.44% of the variation in GRDP.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	PDRB, IPM, Model Simultan Data Panel, Two-Stage Least Square (2SLS) PDRB, HDI, Simultaneous Panel Data Model, Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS).
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA29 Theory and method of social science statistics
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Arum Antika
Date Deposited:	25 Mar 2026 02:16
Last Modified:	25 Mar 2026 02:16
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/132739

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