Peramalan Penjualan Produk Baja Dan Besi Di Pt Msu Dengan Pendekatan Metode Arima Dan Single Moving Average

Faradilla, Sonia (2022) Peramalan Penjualan Produk Baja Dan Besi Di Pt Msu Dengan Pendekatan Metode Arima Dan Single Moving Average. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Produk yang berbahan dasar baja dan besi banyak diperlukan oleh setiap masyarakat khususnya perusahaan-perusahaan besar yang memperoduksi dan membutuhkan produkproduk yang berhubungan dengan baja dan besi. Hal tersebut, yang menyebabkan berbisnis dalam bidang baja dan besi sangat menjanjikan karena perusahaan industri saling berkaitan satu dengan yang lainnya. Contohnya PT MSU yang bekerja sama dengan berbagai macam perusahaan terkemuka di Indonesia. Akan tetapi, sejak tahun 2018 penjualan di PT MSU mengalami fluktuatif dikarenakan terdapat faktor internal, eksternal, dan musim. Karena kondisi tersebut, permasalahan seperti over supply sering terjadi setiap bulannya. Oleh sebab itu, PT MSU selaku perusahaan distribusi perlu melakukan suatu perencanaan penjualan yang tepat. Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut, maka diperlukan penelitian lebih lanjut untuk melakukan peramalan dengan pendekatan metode ARIMA dan Single Moving Average. Metode ARIMA digunakan untuk mengetahui ramalan penjualan produk baja dan besi menjadi sangat penting dan berguna serta bermanfaat sebagai dasar pemantapan strategi untuk menentukan kebijakan yang tepat dalam rangka peningkatan penjualan produk baja dan besi di PT MSU. Metode Single Moving Average mempunyai karakteristik khusus yaitu menentukan ramalan pada periode yang akan datang memerlukan data historis selama jangka waktu tertentu. Metode Single Moving Average lebih dipilih dibandingkan metode ARIMA dikarenakan secara visual hasil ramalan metode Single Moving Average lebih mengikuti nilai aktualnya. Sehingga hasil ramalan penjualan produk baja dan besi di PT MSU periode April 2022 sampai Juni 2022 dan periode April 2022 sampai Desember 2022 mengalami penurunan penjualan atau memperoleh ramalan yang konsisten berturut-turut sebesar 2279 ea.
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Products made from steel and iron are needed by every society, especially large companies that produce and need products related to steel and iron. This, which makes doing business in the steel and iron fields very promising because industrial companies are interrelated with each other. For example, PT MSU collaborates with various leading companies in Indonesia. However, since 2018 sales at PT MSU have fluctuated due to internal, external, and seasonal factors. Because of these conditions, problems such as oversupply often occur every month. Therefore, PT MSU as a distribution company needs to carry out an appropriate sales plan. Based on these problems, further research is needed to carry out forecasting with the ARIMA and Single Moving Average method approaches. The ARIMA method is used to find out the sales forecast of steel and iron products to be very important and useful and useful as a basis for strengthening strategies to determine the right policies in order to increase sales of steel and iron products at PT MSU. The Single Moving Average method has a special characteristic that determining the forecast in the upcoming period requires historical data over a certain period of time. The Single Moving Average method is preferred over the ARIMA method because visually the forecast results of the Single Moving Average method are more in line with the actual value. So that the results of the forecast for sales of steel and iron products at PT MSU for the period of April 2022 to June 2022 and the period from April 2022 to December 2022 experienced a decrease in sales or obtained a consistent forecast of 2279 ea in a row.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.535 Far p-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Fluktuatif, Over Supply, PT MSU, Single Moving Average.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	24 Apr 2026 06:03
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2026 06:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/132907

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