Peramalan Harga Komoditas Gum Rosin Dengan Metode Hybrid Arima - Lstm

Rasyad, Muhammad Naufal (2022) Peramalan Harga Komoditas Gum Rosin Dengan Metode Hybrid Arima - Lstm. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Gum rosin merupakan komoditas ekspor penting bagi Indonesia. Fluktuasi harga gum rosin dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, sehingga diperlukan metode peramalan yang akurat untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan bagi produsen dan eksportir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model peramalan harga gum rosin menggunakan pendekatan hybrid ARIMA-LSTM. Model ARIMA digunakan untuk menangkap komponen linier dari data deret waktu, sedangkan LSTM digunakan untuk menangkap pola non-linier yang kompleks. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa model hybrid ARIMA-LSTM memiliki kinerja yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan model individual ARIMA atau LSTM, ditunjukkan dengan nilai error yang lebih rendah. Pendekatan ini terbukti efektif dalam memprediksi fluktuasi harga gum rosin yang tidak stabil, sehingga dapat menjadi acuan bagi pemangku kepentingan dalam menyusun strategi pasar.
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Gum rosin is an important export commodity for Indonesia. Gum rosin price fluctuations are influenced by various factors, so an accurate forecasting method is needed to assist decision-making for producers and exporters. This study aims to develop a gum rosin price forecasting model using a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM approach. The ARIMA model is used to capture the linear components of the time series data, while LSTM is used to capture complex non-linear patterns. The test results show that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model has better performance compared to individual ARIMA or LSTM models, indicated by lower error values. This approach is proven effective in predicting unstable gum rosin price fluctuations, so it can be a reference for stakeholders in developing market strategies.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSI 519.535 Ras p-1 2022
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Peramalan harga. Gum rosin. Price forecasting. Gum rosin.Peramalan harga. Gum rosin. Price forecasting. Gum rosin.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.213 Management information systems. Dashboards. Enterprise resource planning.
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	03 Jun 2026 06:30
Last Modified:	03 Jun 2026 06:30
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133525

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