A Study on Oil Marine Terminal Resilience Utilizing Socio-Technical Approaches within the Risk Assessment Framework

Mahatrisna, Putu Indra (2026) A Study on Oil Marine Terminal Resilience Utilizing Socio-Technical Approaches within the Risk Assessment Framework. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Marine terminals in oil and gas operations are critical nodes in global energy supply chains, and their resilience, the ability to absorb disturbances and maintain continuous, safe operations, is paramount. Disruptions at these terminals can have widespread economic and environmental consequences. This study aims to develop an integrated socio-technical resilience assessment framework for oil marine terminals. A mixed-methods case study was conducted at the Major Offshore Marine Terminal (Java Sea, Indonesia). Data were gathered through surveys and focus group discussions with terminal operators and safety experts. The approach integrates Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) to prioritize potential failures; the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to map interdependent functions; Bayesian Network (BN) modeling to simulate functional control modes (Strategic, Tactical, Opportunistic, Scrambled); and Hollnagel’s Resilience Assessment Grid (RAG) to score adaptive capacities (respond, monitor, learn, anticipate). Findings showed that the terminal’s operations predominantly occurred under tactical and opportunistic control modes, with a low likelihood of entering the failure-prone scrambled mode (5%). Critical functions influencing resilience included anchor-handling tug supply (AHTS) operations, ship shore communication, and monitoring of the cargo transfer process. The BN model illustrates how variability in these key functions could propagate risk across the system. RAG results indicated generally moderate-to-strong adaptive capacity (composite resilience score 3,72/5), with particularly robust anticipation and learning capabilities, alongside more modest monitoring and response scores. Overall, these findings suggest that, while the terminal exhibits significant adaptive strengths, targeted enhancements (e.g., in monitoring and response procedures) could further bolster resilience. In conclusion, the integrated FMECA-FRAM-BN-RAG framework provides a comprehensive, actionable, and holistic view of port resilience, revealing how socio-technical interactions shape system resilience and offering guidance for targeted risk mitigation, preparedness, and operational continuity in oil marine terminals.
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Terminal laut dalam operasi minyak dan gas merupakan simpul kritis dalam rantai pasokan energi global, dan ketahanannya, yakni kemampuan untuk menanggulangi gangguan serta mempertahankan operasi yang berkelanjutan dengan aman sangatlah penting. Gangguan di terminal-terminal ini dapat menimbulkan dampak ekonomi dan lingkungan yang luas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan kerangka kerja penilaian ketahanan sosio-teknisterintegrasi bagi terminal laut minyak. Studi kasus dengan metode campuran dilakukan di salah satu terminal laut utama di lepas pantai Laut Jawa, Indonesia. Data dikumpulkan melalui survei dan diskusi kelompok terfokus bersama para operator terminal dan pakar keselamatan. Pendekatan ini mengintegrasikan Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) untuk memprioritaskan potensi kegagalan; Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) untuk memetakan fungsi-fungsi yang saling bergantung; pemodelan Jaringan Bayesian (BN) untuk mensimulasikan mode kontrol fungsional (Strategis, Taktis, Oportunistik, dan Kacau); dan Resilience Assessment Grid (RAG) dari Hollnagel untuk menilai kapasitas adaptif (merespons, memantau, belajar, dan mengantisipasi). Temuan menunjukkan bahwa operasi terminal sebagian besar berlangsung dalam mode kontrol taktis dan oportunistik, sementara kemungkinan masuk ke mode kacau yang rentan kegagalan adalah rendah (5%). Fungsi kritis yang mempengaruhi ketahanan meliputi operasi penangan jangkar kapal tunda (AHTS), komunikasi antara kapaldaratan, dan pemantauan proses transfer muatan. Model BN menggambarkan bagaimana variabilitas dalam fungsi-fungsi kunci ini dapat menyebarkan risiko di seluruh sistem. Hasil RAG menunjukkan kapasitas adaptif secara umum moderat hingga kuat (skor ketahanan komposit 3,72/5), dengan kemampuan antisipasi dan pembelajaran yang sangat kuat, disertai skor pemantauan dan respons yang lebih moderat. Secara keseluruhan, temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun terminal menunjukkan kekuatan adaptif yang signifikan, peningkatan yang ditargetkan (misalnya dalam prosedur pemantauan dan respons) dapat lebih memperkuat ketahanan. Kesimpulannya, kerangka kerja terintegrasi FMECA-FRAM–BN–RAG memberikan pandangan yang komprehensif, dapat ditindaklanjuti, dan holistic mengenai ketahanan pelabuhan, mengungkap bagaimana interaksi sosioteknis membentuk ketahanan sistem, serta menawarkan panduan untuk mitigasi risiko yang ditargetkan, kesiapan, dan kelangsungan operasional di terminal minyak laut

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Port Resilience, Bayesian Network, Functional Resonance Analysis Method, Socio-Technical Systems, Oil Marine Terminal, Resilience Assessment Ketahanan Pelabuhan, Jaringan Bayesian, Metode Analisis Resonansi Fungsional, Sistem Sosio-Teknis, Terminal Minyak Laut, Penilaian Ketahanan
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment. V Naval Science > VK > VK358 Marine terminals
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 66105-Doctor of Technology Management (DMT)
Depositing User:	Putu Indra Mahatrisna
Date Deposited:	22 Jun 2026 03:36
Last Modified:	22 Jun 2026 03:36
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/133972

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