Analisis Penentuan Percentile Rate Untuk Owner Estimate (OE) Proyek EPC Menggunakan Pendekatan Multi Criteria Decision Making

Arif, Jannatul (2026) Analisis Penentuan Percentile Rate Untuk Owner Estimate (OE) Proyek EPC Menggunakan Pendekatan Multi Criteria Decision Making. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Owner Estimate (OE) merupakan komponen penting dalam proyek Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) karena digunakan sebagai dasar evaluasi kewajaran harga, penganggaran, serta pengendalian risiko biaya proyek. Di PT Pertamina Patra Niaga Regional Kalimantan, penyusunan OE mengacu pada standar AACE Class II dan dilengkapi analisis probabilistik menggunakan Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) yang menghasilkan rentang estimasi biaya dalam bentuk percentile. Namun demikian, pendekatan tersebut belum menyediakan mekanisme yang terstruktur dalam menentukan nilai percentile OE final, sehingga proses pengambilan keputusan masih sangat bergantung pada judgement manajerial dan berpotensi menimbulkan inkonsistensi antar proyek. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan kerangka pengambilan keputusan untuk menentukan percentile Owner Estimate secara lebih sistematis dan objektif dengan mempertimbangkan trade off antara tingkat risiko proyek dan efisiensi biaya. Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan diidentifikasi dan dibobot menggunakan metode Delphi berdasarkan konsensus Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). Selanjutnya, alternatif percentile dievaluasi menggunakan metode PROMETHEE II untuk menghasilkan pemeringkatan alternatif berdasarkan nilai net flow. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa integrasi Monte Carlo Simulation, Delphi dan PROMETHEE II mampu menghasilkan proses pemilihan percentile OE yang lebih terstruktur, transparan dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan dibandingkan pendekatan berbasis intuisi. Model yang dikembangkan juga menunjukkan kemampuan adaptif terhadap kondisi proyek, sehingga alternatif percentile yang terpilih dapat berbeda sesuai karakteristik risiko, kondisi pasar, kualitas data historis, serta kompleksitas proyek yang dianalisis. Dengan demikian, penelitian ini memberikan kontribusi praktis dalam mendukung standardisasi proses penentuan OE final pada proyek EPC serta memperkuat dasar pengambilan keputusan berbasis risiko di lingkungan perusahaan.
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Owner Estimate (OE) is a critical component in Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects, serving as the basis for bid reasonableness evaluation, budgeting, and project cost risk control. At PT Pertamina Patra Niaga Regional Kalimantan, the preparation of OE follows the AACE Class II standard and is supported by probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), which generates a range of cost estimates in the form of percentiles. However, this approach does not yet provide a structured mechanism for determining the final OE percentile value, causing the decision-making process to rely heavily on managerial judgment and potentially leading to inconsistencies across projects. This research aims to develop a decision-making framework for determining the Owner Estimate percentile in a more systematic and objective manner by considering the trade-off between project risk exposure and cost efficiency. The decision-making factors were identified and weighted using the Delphi method based on the consensus of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). Subsequently, percentile alternatives were evaluated using the PROMETHEE II method to generate alternative rankings based on net flow values. The results indicate that the integration of Monte Carlo Simulation, Delphi, and PROMETHEE II is capable of producing a more structured, transparent, and ccountable OE percentile selection process compared to intuition-based approaches. The developed model also demonstrates adaptability to project conditions, meaning that the selected percentile alternative may vary depending on project risk characteristics, market conditions, historical data quality, and project complexity. Therefore, this research provides practical contributions toward standardizing the determination process of final OE values in EPC projects and strengthening risk-based decision-making practices within the organization

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	EPC, Owner Estimate (OE), Monte Carlo Simulation, percentile, Delphi, PROMETHEE II, MCDM.
Subjects:	T Technology > TH Building construction > TH1461 Concrete construction. T Technology > TH Building construction > TH437 Building--Cost control. T Technology > TH Building construction > TH6840 Piping installation. Pipefitting
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Jannatul Arif
Date Deposited:	30 Jun 2026 07:55
Last Modified:	30 Jun 2026 07:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134162

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