Analisis hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan deforestasi di Indonesia menggunakan hipotesis environmental kuznets curve (EKC)

Balqiz, Nabila Emilia (2026) Analisis hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan deforestasi di Indonesia menggunakan hipotesis environmental kuznets curve (EKC). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 5033221054_Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (4MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Deforestasi merupakan salah satu permasalahan lingkungan utama di Indonesia yang dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas ekonomi, investasi, perdagangan internasional, dan kualitas tata kelola. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan deforestasi di Indonesia menggunakan kerangka Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), serta menguji pengaruh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade Openness (TO), luas lahan perkebunan (ALU), dan Control of Corruption (COC). Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series Indonesia periode 2010–2024 dengan metode Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Variabel dependen yang digunakan adalah Tree Cover Loss (TCL), sedangkan robustness check dilakukan menggunakan indikator alternatif berupa emisi gas rumah kaca. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) tidak terbukti di Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang, GDP per kapita berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap deforestasi (−48,604), sedangkan GDP² berpengaruh positif signifikan (2,875), yang mengindikasikan hubungan berbentuk U (U-shaped). Variabel FDI berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap deforestasi (β = 0,292), sedangkan trade openness (−2,270), luas lahan perkebunan (−1,277), dan Control of Corruption (−0,071) berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap deforestasi. Dalam jangka pendek, GDP (−84,808), GDP² (5,321), FDI (−0,212), dan luas lahan perkebunan (9,983) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap deforestasi. Estimasi turning point menunjukkan titik balik pada tingkat GDP per kapita sekitar USD 3.683. Hasil robustness check menggunakan emisi gas rumah kaca menunjukkan pola hubungan yang relatif konsisten dengan model utama. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan pendapatan belum secara otomatis menghasilkan perbaikan kualitas lingkungan sehingga diperlukan penguatan tata kelola lingkungan dan transformasi ekonomi yang lebih berkelanjutan.
================================================================================================================================
Deforestation is one of the major environmental issues in Indonesia, influenced by economic activity, investment, international trade, and the quality of governance. This study aims to analyze the relationship between economic growth and deforestation in Indonesia using the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, as well as to examine the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade Openness (TO), plantation land area (ALU), and Control of Corruption (COC). The study uses Indonesian time-series data from 2010 to 2024 and applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The dependent variable is Tree Cover Loss (TCL), while a robustness check is conducted using greenhouse gas emissions as an alternative indicator. The results show that the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is not supported in Indonesia. In the long run, GDP per capita has a significant negative effect on deforestation (−48.604), whereas GDP² has a significant positive effect (2.875), indicating a U-shaped relationship. The FDI variable has a significant positive effect on deforestation (β = 0.292), while trade openness (−2.270), plantation land area (−1.277), and Control of Corruption (−0.071) have significant negative effects on deforestation. In the short run, GDP (−84.808), GDP² (5.321), FDI (−0.212), and plantation land area (9.983) have significant effects on deforestation. The estimated turning point occurs at a GDP per capita level of approximately USD 3,683. The robustness check using greenhouse gas emissions demonstrates a pattern of relationships that is generally consistent with the main model. These findings suggest that increasing income does not automatically lead to improvements in environmental quality; therefore, strengthening environmental governance and promoting a more sustainable economic transformation are essential.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), Deforestasi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi,FDI, Produksi Perkebunan.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor S Agriculture > SD Forestry
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Nabila Emilia Balqiz
Date Deposited:	03 Jul 2026 06:39
Last Modified:	03 Jul 2026 06:39
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134258

Actions (login required)

View Item