Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Dan Institusional Terhadap Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Pada Sektor Industri Logam Dasar Dan Barang Logam Di Indonesia (2010-2023)

Putri, Nasywa Amira (2026) Analisis Pengaruh Variabel Makroekonomi Dan Institusional Terhadap Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Pada Sektor Industri Logam Dasar Dan Barang Logam Di Indonesia (2010-2023). Other thesis, Institute Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel makroekonomi dan stabilitas politik (Political Stability) terhadap arus masuk Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) pada sektor industri logam dasar dan barang logam di Indonesia selama periode 2010–2023. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi PDB riil (real GDP), inflasi, nilai tukar, pengeluaran pemerintah, keterbukaan perdagangan (trade openness), stabilitas politik (Political Stability), dan variabel dummy Covid-19. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder tahunan yang diperoleh dari Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), World Bank, dan sumber pendukung lainnya. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah Error Correction Model (ECM) untuk mengidentifikasi hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek antara variabel independen dengan FDI. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang PDB riil, trade openness, dan variabel dummy Covid-19 berpengaruh signifikan terhadap FDI, sedangkan inflasi, nilai tukar, pengeluaran pemerintah, dan stabilitas politik tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Variabel dummy Covid-19 menunjukkan pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap FDI, yang mengindikasikan bahwa pandemi Covid-19 memberikan tekanan terhadap arus investasi asing melalui perlambatan aktivitas ekonomi, meningkatnya ketidakpastian pasar, serta gangguan pada rantai pasok industri. Sementara itu, dalam jangka pendek pengeluaran pemerintah dan trade openness berpengaruh signifikan terhadap FDI, sedangkan PDB riil, inflasi, nilai tukar, dan stabilitas politik tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Hasil estimasi juga menunjukkan bahwa Error Correction Term (ECT) bernilai negatif, yang mengindikasikan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang. Secara keseluruhan, temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa arus investasi asing pada sektor industri logam dasar dan barang logam di Indonesia lebih dipengaruhi oleh kondisi ekonomi dan kebijakan yang bersifat jangka panjang dibandingkan fluktuasi ekonomi jangka pendek.
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an important source of development financing that supports industrial growth and economic development in Indonesia. However, FDI inflows into the basic metal and fabricated metal products industry have fluctuated over time, indicating that investment decisions may be influenced by changes in macroeconomic conditions, institutional factors, and external shocks such as the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to analyze the effects of macroeconomic variables and Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Indonesia’s basic metal and fabricated metal products industry during the period 2010–2023. The variables examined in this study include real GDP, inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, trade openness, Political Stability, and the Covid-19 dummy variable. The study employs annual secondary data obtained from the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the World Bank, and other supporting sources. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is employed to identify both the long-run and short-run relationships between the independent variables and FDI. The results indicate that, in the long run, real GDP, trade openness, and the Covid-19 dummy variable have significant effects on FDI, while inflation, exchange rate, government expenditure, and Political Stability do not have significant effects. The Covid-19 dummy variable has a negative and significant effect on FDI, indicating that the pandemic reduced foreign investment inflows through slower economic activity, increased market uncertainty, and disruptions to industrial supply chains. In the short run, government expenditure and trade openness significantly affect FDI, whereas real GDP, inflation, exchange rate, and Political Stability do not have significant effects. The estimated Error Correction Term (ECT) is negative, indicating the existence of an adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign investment inflows in Indonesia’s basic metal and fabricated metal products industry are influenced more by long-term economic conditions and policy factors than by short-term economic fluctuations.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Foreign Direct Investment, Produk Domesti Bruto, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Keterbukaan Perdagangan, Pengeluaran Pemerintah, Stabilitas Politik, Covid-19, ECM. Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Exchange Rate, Inflation, Trade Openness Government Expenditure,Political Stability, Covid-19, ECM.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Developmental Studies > 60201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Nasywa Amira Putri
Date Deposited:	13 Jul 2026 00:33
Last Modified:	13 Jul 2026 00:33
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/134361

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