Pendeteksian Gerakan Badai Seroja Tahun 2021 Berdasarkan Variasi Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) GNSS

Abrar, Naufal Zidane (2026) Pendeteksian Gerakan Badai Seroja Tahun 2021 Berdasarkan Variasi Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) GNSS. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Siklon Tropis Seroja pada 4-5 April 2021 menyebabkan peningkatan aktivitas hujan ekstrem di wilayah Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT). Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), yang merepresentasikan total kandungan uap air pada kolom atmosfer, merupakan parameter penting dalam pembentukan presipitasi ekstrem karena peningkatannya berkaitan dengan potensi konveksi yang lebih kuat. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengestimasi PWV berbasis pengamatan Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), membandingkannya dengan PWV reanalisis ERA5, serta menganalisis hubungannya dengan parameter meteorologi lokal selama periode Badai Seroja. Data yang digunakan meliputi observasi GNSS format RINEX dari stasiun Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS), data reanalisis ERA5, data Automatic Weather Station (AWS), dan citra satelit Himawari-8. Pengolahan GNSS dilakukan menggunakan metode Precise Point Positioning (PPP) pada perangkat lunak GipsyX untuk memperoleh Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD) yang kemudian dikonversi menjadi PWV menggunakan weighted mean temperature dari ERA5. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai PWV GNSS meningkat signifikan dan bertahan pada kondisi tinggi selama fase utama Seroja, terutama pada 3-5 April 2021, seiring meluasnya tutupan awan dan tingginya Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV) ERA5 sebesar 50-67 mm, lebih tinggi dibanding kisaran normal PWV wilayah tropis sebesar 30-60 mm. Perbandingan PWV GNSS dan ERA5 menunjukkan kesesuaian temporal yang kuat dengan koefisien korelasi 0,927-0,976 dan R² sebesar 0,860-0,952, dengan korelasi tertinggi pada stasiun CKUP dan CRTE, serta RMSE sebesar 2,87-8,38 mm. Analisis AWS menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan PWV diikuti oleh kelembapan relatif yang mendekati jenuh dan penurunan tekanan permukaan hingga sekitar 990 hPa di Rote. Pola tersebut memperlihatkan akumulasi PWV pada fase pra-badai, mencapai puncak saat fase aktif badai, dan menurun pada fase pasca badai. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PWV berbasis GNSS memiliki kemampuan yang baik dalam merepresentasikan variasi kelembapan atmosfer skala lokal serta berpotensi menjadi indikator pendukung untuk memantau perkembangan siklon tropis.
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Tropical Cyclone Seroja on April 4-5, 2021, caused extreme rainfall to increase in the East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) region. Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), which shows the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere column, is an important parameter for the formation of extreme precipitation because if it rises, it means the potential for convection also gets stronger. This study aims to estimate PWV using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observation data, compare it with PWV from ERA5 reanalysis , and explore its relationship with local meteorological conditions during Cyclone Seroja. The data used include GNSS observations in RINEX format from Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS), ERA5 reanalysis data, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, and Himawari-8 satellite images. GNSS processing was done using the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method on the GipsyX software to obtain Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD), which was then converted into PWV using the weighted mean temperature from ERA5. The results showed that GNSS PWV values increased significantly and remained high during the main phase of Seroja, especially from April 3-5, 2021, along with the expansion of cloud cover and high Total Column Water Vapor (TCWV) from ERA5 of 50-67 mm, higher than the normal PWV range in the tropics of 30-60 mm. The comparison between GNSS and ERA5 PWV showed strong temporal agreement with correlation coefficients of 0.927-0.976 and R² of 0.860-0.952, with the highest correlation at the CKUP and CRTE stations, and RMSE of 2.87-8.38 mm. AWS analysis showed that the increase in PWV was followed by relative humidity approaching saturation and a drop in surface pressure to around 990 hPa in Rote. The pattern shows an accumulation of PWV in the pre-storm phase, peaking during the active storm phase, and decreasing in the post-storm phase. The study results indicate that GNSS-based PWV is quite good at representing local-scale atmospheric moisture variations and could potentially serve as a supporting indicator for monitoring the development of tropical cyclones.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ERA5, GNSS, Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), Precise Point Positioning (PPP), Siklon Tropis Seroja, Tropical Cylone Seroja
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics > QC871 Meteorology--Observations.
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Naufal Zidane Abrar
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2026 01:51
Last Modified:	20 Jul 2026 01:51
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/135444

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