Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Kontribusi Industri Farmasi, Obat Kimia, Dan Obat Tradisional Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional

Himawhan, Krisna Setia (2026) Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Kontribusi Industri Farmasi, Obat Kimia, Dan Obat Tradisional Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang berkelanjutan menjadi aspek prioritas bagi Indonesia, terutama dalam usaha mencapai target pertumbuhan ekonomi 8% dalam Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah (RPJMN) 2025 —2029 sementara sektor industri farmasi, obat kimia, dan obat tradisional memiliki peran strategis untuk mendukung dalam memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional secara berkelanjutan. Sektor industri farmasi, obat kimia, dan obat tradisional menunjukan tren pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif dalam menopang nilai tambah industri manufaktur terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) nasional. Namun sektor ini masih menghadapi tantangan mulai dari tingginya ketergantungan impor bahan baku sebesar 90-95%, penurunan investasi dalam maupun luar negeri. Sektor ini perlu ditingkatkan kontribusi karena memiliki peran strategis dalam memperkuat kemandirian industri serta meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi secara berkelanjutan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi variabel dan keterkaitan yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional dari kontribusi industri farmasi, obat kimia, dan obat tradisional serta merancang model sistem dinamik pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang berkelanjutan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan sistem dinamik yang meliputi analisis sistem, penyusunan causal loop diagram, pengembangan stock and flow diagram, , uji validasi struktur dan perilaku sistem, serta formulasi skenario untuk mengidentifikasi perilaku sistem pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kompleks. Data dan informasi dalam penelitian ini didapatkan dari data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Kementerian Perindustrian, dan Kementerian Investasi dan Hilirisasi. Hasil penelitian ini berfokus pada upaya kemandirian dan ketahanan farmasi nasional dengan menghasilkan skenario diantaranya skenario Do Nothing dengan tingkat ketergantungan impor bahan baku obat 90%, skenario Import Substitution yang berhasil menurunkan impor hampir 50%, dan skenario Import Substitution With Government Support sebagai strategi terbaik yang secara signifikan menekan ketergantungan impor hingga 45% serta menghasilkan nilai PDB industri farmasi, obat kimia, dan obat tradisional tertinggi sebesar Rp800 T dengan kontirbusi terhadap PDB industri pengolahan meningkat hingga 6%. Manfaat dari penelitian ini mampu memberikan kontribusi teoritis berupa kerangka pemodelan yang dinamis dalam lingkup pertumbuhan ekonomi serta manfaat praktis berupa rekomendasi kebijakan berbasis simulasi untuk mendukung efektivitas pengambilan kebijakan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
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The national economy's sustainable growth is a priority for Indonesia, especially in its efforts to achieve the 8% economic growth target in the 2025–2029 Medium-Term Development Plan, while the pharmaceutical, chemical medicine, and traditional medicine sectors play a strategic role in supporting the strengthening of sustainable national economic growth. The pharmaceutical, chemical medicine, and traditional medicine sectors show positive economic growth trends in supporting the added value of the manufacturing industry to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, this sector still faces challenges ranging from high dependence on raw material imports of 90-95% to a decline in domestic and foreign investment. This sector needs to increase its contribution because it plays a strategic role in strengthening industrial independence and promoting sustainable economic growth. This study focuses on identifying variables and relationships that influence national economic growth from the contributions of the pharmaceutical, chemical medicine, and traditional medicine industries, as well as designing a dynamic model for sustainable national economic growth. The method used in this research uses a dynamic system that includes system analysis, causal loop diagram preparation, stock and flow diagram development, system structure and behavior validation testing, and scenario formulation to identify the behavior of complex economic growth systems. The data and information in this research were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) the Ministry of Industry, and the Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming. The results of this research focus on efforts to achieve national pharmaceutical independence and resilience by developing scenarios, including the Do Nothing scenario, which results in a 90% dependence on imported pharmaceutical raw materials; the Import Substitution scenario, which successfully reduces dependence on imported pharmaceutical raw materials by nearly 50%; and the Import Substitution with Government Support scenario as the optimal strategy, which significantly reduces import dependency to 45% and generates the highest GDP value for the pharmaceutical, chemical drug, and traditional medicine industries at Rp800 trillion, with the contribution to the manufacturing sector’s GDP increasing to 6%. The benefits of this research are able to provide theoretical contributions in the form of a dynamic modeling framework in the context of economic growth, as well as practical benefits in the form of simulation-based policy recommendations to support the effectiveness of economic growth policy-making.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Industri farmasi, Kemandirian industri farmasi, Pertumbuhan ekonomi, Sistem dinamik, Dynamic systems, Economic growth, Independence of the pharmaceutical industry, Pharmaceutical industry.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.62 Decision support systems
Divisions:	Faculty of Information Technology > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Krisna Setia Himawhan
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2026 01:00
Last Modified:	20 Jul 2026 01:00
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/135621

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