Dampak Ekonomi Kenaikan Muka Laut Dan Penurunan Tanah Di Surabaya: Pendekatan Genangan Berbasis Limpasan

Wahyuningrum, Aisyah Rachmawati (2026) Dampak Ekonomi Kenaikan Muka Laut Dan Penurunan Tanah Di Surabaya: Pendekatan Genangan Berbasis Limpasan. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kenaikan muka laut global (Sea Level Rise) dan penurunan tanah (land subsidence) merupakan ancaman yang semakin signifikan bagi wilayah pesisir, khususnya di kota-kota besar yang mengalami tekanan pembangunan dan perubahan tata guna lahan. Kota Surabaya, terutama kawasan Pantai Timur Surabaya (Pamurbaya), menghadapi risiko genangan yang meningkat akibat kombinasi kenaikan muka laut, penurunan tanah, dan limpasan permukaan yang dipicu oleh curah hujan serta berkurangnya kemampuan infiltrasi lahan. Kondisi tersebut berpotensi menimbulkan kerugian ekonomi yang besar, mengganggu aktivitas sosial dan ekonomi masyarakat, serta mempercepat degradasi ekosistem pesisir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak ekonomi yang ditimbulkan oleh kombinasi kenaikan muka laut, penurunan tanah, dan limpasan permukaan melalui pengembangan model genangan berbasis limpasan di wilayah Surabaya. Analisis kenaikan muka laut dilakukan menggunakan data altimetri Level-4 Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) periode 1996–2024, sedangkan analisis penurunan tanah dilakukan menggunakan data Sentinel-1A Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) periode 1996–2024. Estimasi limpasan permukaan diperoleh melalui integrasi data curah hujan dari BMKG. Ketiga parameter tersebut diintegrasikan dalam pemodelan genangan untuk menghasilkan peta genangan pada berbagai skenario waktu, yaitu tahun 2030, 2050, dan 2100. Selanjutnya, dampak ekonomi akibat genangan dievaluasi menggunakan pendekatan Expected Annual Damage (EAD) untuk mengestimasi potensi kerugian tahunan yang ditimbulkan. Hasil penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan gambaran mengenai tingkat risiko genangan dan kerugian ekonomi di wilayah pesisir Surabaya, serta menghasilkan rekomendasi strategi adaptasi dan mitigasi yang efektif dan efisien secara ekonomi. Penelitian ini juga diharapkan dapat mendukung perencanaan wilayah pesisir yang berkelanjutan dan menjadi dasar pengambilan kebijakan adaptasi perubahan iklim di kota-kota pesisir Indonesia melalui integrasi observasi geospasial, analisis risiko, dan evaluasi dampak ekonomi. ===================================================================================================================================
Global sea level rise (SLR) and land subsidence have become increasingly significant threats to coastal areas, particularly in large cities experiencing rapid development and land-use changes. Surabaya City, especially the East Coast of Surabaya (Pamurbaya), faces increasing inundation risks due to the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, and surface runoff driven by rainfall and reduced land infiltration capacity. These conditions have the potential to cause substantial economic losses, disrupt social and economic activities, and accelerate the degradation of coastal ecosystems. This study aims to assess the economic impacts resulting from the combined effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, and surface runoff through the development of a runoff-based inundation model in the Surabaya coastal area. Sea level rise analysis is conducted using Level-4 Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) altimetry data covering the period from 1996 to 2024, while land subsidence analysis is performed using Sentinel-1A Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data from 2018 to 2024. Surface runoff estimation is derived through the integration of rainfall data obtained from BMKG. These three parameters are integrated into an inundation modeling framework to produce inundation maps under multiple future scenarios, namely for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Furthermore, the economic impacts of inundation are evaluated using the Expected Annual Damage (EAD) approach to estimate potential annual economic losses. The results of this study are expected to provide insights into inundation risk levels and associated economic losses in the coastal areas of Surabaya, as well as to generate recommendations for effective and economically efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies. This research is also expected to support sustainable coastal planning and serve as a basis for climate change adaptation policy development in Indonesian coastal cities through the integration of geospatial observations, risk assessment, and economic impact evaluation.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penurunan Tanah, Dampak Ekonomi, Expected Annual Damage, Genangan, Kenaikan Muka Laut, Limpasan, Perubahan Iklim, Climate Change, Economic Impact, Expected Annual Damage, Inundation, Land Subsidence, Runoff, Sea Level Rise
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD194.6 Environmental impact analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Ocean Engineering > 38101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Aisyah Rachmawati wahyuningrum
Date Deposited:	28 Jul 2026 03:00
Last Modified:	28 Jul 2026 03:00
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136113

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