Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Untuk Menganalisis Kontribusi Industri Tekstil Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional

Ramadhan, Hajid Alauddin (2026) Pengembangan Model Sistem Dinamik Untuk Menganalisis Kontribusi Industri Tekstil Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Latar Belakang: Industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT) merupakan salah satu sektor manufaktur strategis di Indonesia karena berperan dalam penyerapan tenaga kerja, pembentukan nilai tambah industri, serta mendukung kinerja ekspor nonmigas. Namun, kontribusi sektor TPT terhadap perekonomian nasional masih belum optimal. Kondisi tersebut dipengaruhi oleh tingginya biaya produksi, efisiensi energi yang belum optimal, serta capaian output produksi yang belum maksimal. Permasalahan: Pengaruh industri tekstil terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional masih relatif kecil karena peningkatan kinerja sektor tekstil belum sepenuhnya mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi secara signifikan. Selain itu, hubungan antara input cost, production output, investasi, PDB industri tekstil, PDB nasional, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi belum dianalisis secara sistemik dan dinamis. Data dan Metode: Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan Sistem Dinamik melalui penyusunan Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), pengembangan Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), formulasi persamaan, verifikasi, validasi, simulasi base model, dan pengembangan skenario. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder dari BPS, BI, BKPM, serta publikasi ilmiah dan laporan internasional yang relevan dengan industri tekstil dan makroekonomi nasional. Hasil: Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa skenario Transformasi Bertahap Industri 4.0 Tekstil mampu memperkuat kinerja sektoral industri tekstil dalam jangka panjang. Pada tahun 2045, production output mencapai sekitar Rp1.740 triliun, lebih tinggi dibandingkan skenario Do Nothing sebesar Rp700 triliun. Input cost menurun menjadi sekitar Rp210 triliun, lebih rendah dibandingkan Do Nothing sebesar Rp297 triliun. GDP of Textile Industry meningkat menjadi sekitar Rp241 triliun, sedangkan Do Nothing sebesar Rp200 triliun. Namun, dampak terhadap economic growth nasional masih kecil, yaitu 4,98213% pada skenario transformasi dan 4,98105% pada Do Nothing. Nilai Tambah: Penelitian ini menghasilkan model kausal-dinamis yang dapat digunakan sebagai dasar analisis dan rekomendasi kebijakan Transformasi Industri 4.0 sektor TPT secara bertahap.
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Context: The Textile and Textile Products (TPT) industry is one of Indonesia’s strategic manufacturing sectors due to its role in employment absorption, industrial value-added creation, and support for non-oil and gas export performance. However, the contribution of the TPT sector to the national economy remains suboptimal. This condition is influenced by high production costs, less-than-optimal energy efficiency, and production output that has not yet reached its optimal level. Problem: The influence of the textile industry on national economic growth remains relatively limited, as improvements in textile sector performance have not yet been able to significantly drive economic growth. In addition, the relationships among input cost, production output, investment, textile industry GDP, national GDP, and economic growth have not been analyzed in a systemic and dynamic manner. Data and Methods: This research applies a System Dynamics approach through the development of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), equation formulation, verification, validation, base model simulation, and scenario development. The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, BKPM, as well as scientific publications and international reports relevant to the textile industry and national macroeconomics.
Results: The simulation results show that the Gradual Transformation of Textile Industry 4.0 scenario is able to strengthen the sectoral performance of the textile industry in the long term. By 2045, production output reaches approximately IDR 1,740 trillion, higher than the Do Nothing scenario at IDR 700 trillion. Input cost decreases to approximately IDR 210 trillion, lower than the Do Nothing scenario at IDR 297 trillion. The GDP of the Textile Industry increases to approximately IDR 241 trillion, while the Do Nothing scenario reaches IDR 200 trillion. However, the impact on national economic growth remains limited, with economic growth reaching 4.98213% under the transformation scenario and 4.98105% under the Do Nothing scenario. Added Value: This study produces a causal-dynamic model that can be used as an analytical basis and policy recommendation framework for the gradual implementation of Industry 4.0 transformation in the TPT sector.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Textile and Textile Products Industry, System Dynamics, Industry 4.0 Transformation, National Economic Growth,Industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil, Sistem Dinamik, Transformasi Industri 4.0, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional.
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Information System > 57201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Hajid Alauddin Ramadhan
Date Deposited:	22 Jul 2026 01:45
Last Modified:	22 Jul 2026 01:45
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136114

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