Estimasi Slip Rate dan Locking Depth Sesar Sagaing Myanmar, Berdasarkan Jaringan GNSS MIBB Untuk Perkiraan Potensi Gempa

Zamora, Racka Ichwan (2026) Estimasi Slip Rate dan Locking Depth Sesar Sagaing Myanmar, Berdasarkan Jaringan GNSS MIBB Untuk Perkiraan Potensi Gempa. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sesar Sagaing merupakan sesar geser dekstral aktif sepanjang lebih dari 1.200 km yang membelah Myanmar dari utara ke selatan dan menjadi batas utama antara Lempeng Sunda dan Lempeng Burma. Tingginya akumulasi tegangan tektonik di sepanjang sesar ini menjadikannya salah satu sumber ancaman seismik di Asia Tenggara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi slip rate dan locking depth Sesar Sagaing serta memperkirakan potensi gempa bumi yang dapat ditimbulkan, berdasarkan data pengamatan GNSS kontinu dari delapan stasiun jaringan MIBB (Myanmar–India–Bangladesh–Bhutan) untuk periode 2011–2020. Pengolahan data GNSS dilakukan menggunakan perangkat lunak GAMIT/GLOBK versi 10.71 dalam kerangka referensi ITRF 2014, dan estimasi kecepatan stasiun dilakukan melalui pemodelan regresi harmonik.. Komponen kecepatan paralel sesar kemudian dimodelkan menggunakan pendekatan elastic half-space melalui metode pencarian grid dengan minimisasi reduced chi-square. Hasil estimasi Sesar Sagaing menunjukkan slip rate sebesar 20,4 mm/tahun dan locking depth sebesar 14,5 km dengan nilai reduced chi-square (χ²_red) = 1. Berdasarkan parameter tersebut, Sesar Sagaing memiliki potensi melepaskan gempa bumi dengan magnitude maksimum sebesar Mw 7,83 dan recurrence interval sekitar 66 tahun.
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The Sagaing Fault is an active dextral strike-slip fault extending more than 1,200 km that bisects Myanmar from north to south and serves as the main boundary between the Sunda Plate and the Burma Plate. The high accumulation of tectonic stress along this fault makes it one of the major seismic hazard sources in Southeast Asia. This study aims to estimate the slip rate and locking depth of the Sagaing Fault and to assess the potential earthquake that it may generate, based on continuous GNSS observation data from eight stations of the MIBB (Myanmar–India–Bangladesh–Bhutan) network for the period 2011–2020. GNSS data processing was carried out using GAMIT/GLOBK software version 10.71 in the ITRF 2014 reference frame, and station velocity estimation was performed through harmonic regression modeling. The fault-parallel velocity component was then modeled using an elastic half-space approach through a grid search method with reduced chi-square minimization. The estimation results show that the Sagaing Fault has a slip rate of 20.4 mm/year and a locking depth of 14.5 km, with a reduced chi-square (χ²_red) value of 1. Based on these parameters, the Sagaing Fault has the potential to release an earthquake with a maximum magnitude of Mw 7.83 and a recurrence interval of approximately 66 years.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	GNSS, Locking Depth, Potensi Gempa, Slip Rate, Sesar Sagaing, Earthquake Potential, Sagaing Fault
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G109.5 Global Positioning System
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Geomatics Engineering > 29202-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Racka Ichwan Zamora
Date Deposited:	23 Jul 2026 04:23
Last Modified:	23 Jul 2026 04:23
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136550

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