Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Epc Pengembangan Coal Handling Facility (Chf) Rail Loop Serta Train Loading System (Tls) 6 Dan 7

Wiyanto, Aditya (2026) Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Epc Pengembangan Coal Handling Facility (Chf) Rail Loop Serta Train Loading System (Tls) 6 Dan 7. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Meningkatnya kebutuhan energi global, khususnya batu bara, telah mendorong perusahaan pertambangan termasuk PT Bukit Asam untuk mengembangkan infrastruktur logistik bagi proyek Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) CHF Rail Loop serta TLS 6 dan 7 yang membutuhkan investasi besar sekaligus menghadapi ketidakpastian seperti pergerakan harga komoditas dan biaya operasional. Studi ini mencakup analisis kualitatif terhadap penerapan dan pengelolaan proyek sekaligus menganalisis secara kuantitatif kelayakan, sensitivitas, dan risiko dari keputusan investasi. Metode analisis finansial seperti Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of return (IRR), Benefit cost ratio (BCR), dan Payback period (PP). Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan dengan mengubah parameter kunci (penjualan, CAPEX, dan OPEX) untuk mengetahui parameter mana yang memiliki pengaruh lebih besar terhadap kelayakan proyek. Penelitian ini melakukan analisis risiko menggunakan dua pendekatan, yaitu kerangka deterministik berbasis skenario (optimistis, moderat, dan pesimistis) serta pendekatan simulasi Monte Carlo probabilistik untuk mengkuantifikasi distribusi nilai NPV dan IRR yang mungkin, dengan mensimulasikan variasi simultan faktor masukan. Arus kas dibangun berbasis manfaat incremental proyek (net incremental benefit) setelah pajak, bukan total revenue/OPEX korporat, dengan komponen CAPEX, OPEX, pajak, dan terminal value dinyatakan secara eksplisit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini layak secara teknis dan finansial pada kondisi dasar, sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh nilai NPV yang positif, IRR lebih besar daripada WACC, dan BCR lebih dari 1. Simulasi Monte Carlo dijalankan sebanyak 10.000 iterasi dan menunjukkan bahwa proyek ini berisiko, tetapi tidak berlebihan, dengan probabilitas pemenuhan kriteria kelayakan berada pada kisaran 58%-64% serta sebaran nilai NPV, IRR, BCR, dan PP yang cukup lebar. Oleh karena itu, strategi manajemen risiko yang kuat dan operasional harus diterapkan untuk menjaga investasi tetap stabil dan memungkinkan proyek untuk berkembang secara berkelanjutan.
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The increasing global demand for energy, particularly coal, has encouraged mining companies, including PT Bukit Asam, to develop logistics infrastructure through the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Coal Handling Facility (CHF) Rail Loop and Train Loading System (TLS) 6 and 7 projects. These projects require substantial capital investment while facing significant uncertainties, such as fluctuations in commodity prices and operating costs. This study combines qualitative analysis of project implementation and management with quantitative assessments of investment feasibility, sensitivity, and risk. Financial feasibility was evaluated using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR), and Payback Period (PP). Sensitivity analysis was conducted by varying key parameters, including sales, capital expenditure (CAPEX), and operating expenditure (OPEX), to identify the variables with the greatest influence on project feasibility. Risk analysis employed two complementary approaches: a deterministic scenario-based framework (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic) and a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the potential distributions of NPV and IRR by simultaneously varying key input variables. Cash flow projections were developed based on the project's net incremental benefits after tax rather than total corporate revenues and operating expenses, with CAPEX, OPEX, taxes, and terminal value explicitly incorporated into the model. The findings indicate that the project is technically and financially feasible under the base-case scenario, as reflected by a positive NPV, an IRR exceeding the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), and a BCR greater than 1. The Monte Carlo simulation, performed over 10,000 iterations, revealed that the project carries a moderate level of investment risk, with the probability of meeting the investment feasibility criteria ranging from 58% to 64%, accompanied by relatively wide distributions of NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP. Therefore, robust operational and financial risk management strategies are essential to maintain investment stability and support the project's long-term sustainability.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	kelayakan investasi, analisis sensitivitas, analisis risiko, Monte Carlo, NPV, IRR, BCR, Payback Period, Coal Handling Facility, Train Loading System, pertambangan Batubara, investment feasibility, sensitivity analysis, risk analysis, Monte Carlo, NPV, IRR, BCR, Payback Period, Coal Handling Facility, Train Loading System, Coal mining.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.28 Planning. Business planning. Strategic planning.
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Aditya Wiyanto
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 07:41
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 07:41
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/136713

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