Studi Proyeksi Curah Hujan Dan Suhu Das Brantas Menggunakan Model Cmip6 Berdasarkan Skenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Ramadhani, Aulia Fitri (2026) Studi Proyeksi Curah Hujan Dan Suhu Das Brantas Menggunakan Model Cmip6 Berdasarkan Skenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Brantas merupakan DAS terbesar dan terpenting di Jawa Timur yang berperan dalam penyediaan air baku, irigasi pertanian, pembangkit listrik tenaga air, serta pengendalian banjir. Ketergantungan berbagai sektor terhadap sumber daya air menjadikan DAS Brantas rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kemampuan model iklim global EC-Earth3 dalam merepresentasikan kondisi iklim DAS Brantas, memproyeksikan perubahan suhu dan curah hujan periode 2025–2035 berdasarkan skenario SSP1-2.6 dan SSP5-8.5, serta menyusun strategi adaptasi perubahan iklim. Penelitian menggunakan data observasi SA-OBS, data reanalisis ERA5-Land, dan data proyeksi EC-Earth3 dari Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Periode dasar yang digunakan adalah tahun 2015–2024, sedangkan periode proyeksi mencakup tahun 2025–2035. Pengolahan data dilakukan melalui regridding menggunakan Climate Data Operators (CDO) dan koreksi bias menggunakan metode Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) pada lingkungan komputasi R dengan bantuan paket climate4R/downscaleR. Kinerja model dievaluasi menggunakan bias, RMSE, MAE, dan koefisien korelasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa koreksi bias berhasil meningkatkan kemampuan EC-Earth3 dalam merepresentasikan kondisi iklim DAS Brantas sehingga layak digunakan untuk proyeksi iklim regional. Proyeksi CMIP6 periode 2025–2035 menunjukkan peningkatan suhu yang konsisten pada kedua skenario, dengan suhu SSP5-8.5 sekitar 0,9–1,0°C lebih tinggi dibandingkan SSP1-2.6. Sebaliknya, curah hujan tidak menunjukkan tren yang jelas, namun memperlihatkan peningkatan variabilitas dengan anomali defisit yang lebih dominan dibandingkan surplus. Secara umum, perubahan iklim di DAS Brantas lebih tercermin melalui peningkatan variabilitas dan ketidakpastian distribusi dibandingkan perubahan nilai rata-rata. Temuan ini menjadi dasar dalam penyusunan strategi adaptasi berbasis pengelolaan sumber daya air yang adaptif terhadap perubahan kondisi iklim.
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The Brantas River Basin is the largest and most important watershed in East Java, supporting raw water supply, agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control. The dependence of these sectors on water resources makes the basin highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This study aims to evaluate the capability of the EC-Earth3 global climate model in representing the climatic conditions of the Brantas River Basin, project future changes in temperature and rainfall for the 2025–2035 period under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and formulate climate change adaptation strategies. This study utilized SA-OBS observational data, ERA5-Land reanalysis data, and EC-Earth3 projection data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The baseline period covered 2015–2024, while the projection period covered 2025–2035. Data processing involved regridding using Climate Data Operators (CDO) and bias correction using the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) method within the R computing environment with the climate4R/downscaleR package. Model performance was evaluated using bias, RMSE, MAE, and correlation coefficient. The results indicate that bias correction successfully improved the ability of EC-Earth3 to represent the climatic conditions of the Brantas River Basin, making it suitable for regional climate projection. CMIP6 projections for 2025–2035 show a consistent increase in temperature under both scenarios, with temperatures under SSP5-8.5 approximately 0.9–1.0°C higher than those under SSP1-2.6. In contrast, rainfall does not exhibit a clear trend but shows increased variability, with deficit anomalies occurring more prominently than surplus anomalies. Overall, climate change in the Brantas River Basin is reflected more in increasing variability and distributional uncertainty than in changes to mean conditions. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive water resources management strategies in response to future climate change.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	DAS Brantas, CMIP6, EC-Earth3, proyeksi iklim, Quantile Delta Mapping. Brantas River Basin, CMIP6, EC-Earth3, climate projection, Quantile Delta Mapping
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning > Environment Engineering > 25201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Aulia Fitri Ramadhani
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 03:16
Last Modified:	24 Jul 2026 03:16
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/137030

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